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GOLDMAN SACHS: Hedge funds are betting billions that these 18 stocks are doomed

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building demolition

Hedge funds have had a great year picking stocks. But there's a dark underbelly to their investment activity that involves betting on companies to falter.

To see which stocks bear the biggest burden of hedge fund shorts, the equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs analyzes 821 funds that hold a combined $1.9 trillion in gross equity positions, then identifies the stocks that have the highest dollar value of short interest outstanding.

Known as the Very Important Short Position list, the basket excludes companies in Goldman's hedge fund VIP index, as well as stocks with more than 10% of float-adjusted shares held short. It also has a large-cap bias, with a median market capitalization of $71 billion, compared with $20 billion for the S&P 500.

Here's a list of the 18 stocks in the index that have the highest level of short interest:

18. Target

Ticker: TGT

Subsector: General merchandise stores

Total return year-to-date: -21%

Value of short interest: $1.9 billion

Source: Goldman Sachs



17. Boeing

Ticker: BA

Subsector: Aerospace & defense

Total return year-to-date: 16%

Value of short interest: $2 billion

Source: Goldman Sachs



16. Lam Research

Ticker: LRCX

Subsector: Semiconductor equipment

Total return year-to-date: 42%

Value of short interest: $2 billion

Source: Goldman Sachs



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

5 hedge funders and government insiders have been charged with illegal trading

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fBI

NEW YORK — A Washington, DC, political consultant, a former federal employee, and three others have been charged with using confidential information from within a US health agency to engage in an insider trading scheme.

Federal prosecutors on Wednesday unsealed an indictment in Manhattan federal court against David Blaszczak, a political consultant and founder of Precipio Health Strategies; Christopher Worrall, a former Department of Health and Human Services employee; and Rob Olan and Ted Huber, listed as employees on the website of the healthcare hedge fund Deerfield Management.

Jordan Fogel, a former Deerfield employee who was also charged, pleaded guilty on Friday, according to a spokesman for Joon Kim, the acting US attorney in Manhattan.

Lawyers for the defendants could not immediately be reached for comment. Deerfield, which is not charged, also could not be reached.

Prosecutors said that from 2012 to 2014, Olan, Huber, and Fogel schemed to get confidential information from the Department of Health and Human Services from Blaszczak, who had worked there. Blaszczak, in turn, got the information from his former colleague and "close friend" Worrall.

Worrall worked in the agency's Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services division, which oversees government health-insurance programs, according to the court papers. The confidential information included advance notice about regulations of radiation cancer treatment and dialysis, allowing Deerfield to trade in healthcare companies affected by the rules.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said on Wednesday that it had filed a separate complaint against Blaszczak, Worrall, Huber, and Fogel over the alleged scheme.

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Hedge funds are betting billions that a stock loved by millennials will plummet (NVDA)

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texting einstein smart millennials

  • Nvidia has surged by 95% since last year's US election, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 over the period. Now hedge funds and millennial investors are divided over its outlook.
  • The stock is the fourth most shorted by hedge funds, judging by dollar amount of short interest, according to a Goldman Sachs study.
  • It's also the sixth-most-owned stock holding for millennial investors, according to the no-fee trading app Robinhood.

A battle is brewing over the best-performing stock since last year's US election.

The company in question is Nvidia, which has enjoyed a particularly charmed existence since November 8. The graphics-chip maker's stock price has exploded 95% higher since then, the biggest gain in the S&P 500 by almost 30 percentage points.

On one hand, the company has been targeted by large speculators as a stock likely to decline, as reflected by the roughly $3 billion in short positions held by hedge funds. That's the fourth-highest level of short interest out of companies analyzed by Goldman Sachs, which combed through 821 funds holding a combined $1.9 trillion.

But it's also one of the favorite stocks for millennial investors. According to the investment startup Robinhood, Nvidia is the sixth-most-owned stock on its entire platform.

What's more, options traders don't seem particularly concerned about lofty valuations.

They're paying the lowest premium in nearly three years to protect against a 10% decline in Nvidia's stock over the next three months, relative to bets on a 10% increase, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In fact, options investors are almost paying more to bet on further gains than to hedge, a rare occurrence for the stock.

Screen Shot 2017 05 24 at 3.41.22 PMAnd while share prices across the technology industry as a whole have soared since the election, Nvidia has even more going for it than strength by association and the adoration of millennials. On Wednesday, SoftBank announced a $4 billion stake in the company, sending shares climbing by as much as 3%.

Nvidia also turned in a blockbuster earnings report earlier this month, spiking by 18%, the most in six months. The company was helped by strong demand for its chips that are used by major cloud-computing providers in data centers.

In the grand scheme of things, this discrepancy between large institutions and individual investors is nothing new to the stock market. The tug-of-war is indicative of the scenario that usually plays out when a stock goes on a torrid run like the one seen by Nvidia.

Some people get drawn in by the hype and the prospect of a quick profit, while others get worried that valuations are overextended. In the end, the conflicting forces are healthy for the market, which is most susceptible to large shocks when euphoria is peaking.

SEE ALSO: GOLDMAN SACHS: Hedge funds are betting billions that these 18 stocks are doomed

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A legendary hedge fund that raised $5 billion in 24 hours expects 'all hell to break loose'

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paul singer

A hedge fund led by an investing legend expects "all hell to break loose."

Billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott Management, which raised $5 billion in less than 24 hours earlier this month, says it has been building up its cash reserve to deploy during future market turmoil.

The hedge fund has been sounding the alarm for some time. But its most recent letter sets out why the fund decided to raise additional funds.

"We think that it is a good time to build a significant amount of dry powder," Elliott wrote to investors in a first-quarter update, a copy of which was reviewed by Business Insider.

It added:

"Given groupthink and the determination of policymakers to do 'whatever it takes' to prevent the next market 'crash,' we think that the low-volatility levitation magic act of stocks and bonds will exist until the disenchanting moment when it does not. And then all hell will break loose (don't ask us what hell looks like...), a lamentable scenario that will nevertheless present opportunities that are likely to be both extraordinary and ephemeral. The only way to take advantage of those opportunities is to have ready access to capital."

Elliott highlighted a chapter during the financial crisis to explain its choice to raise more money ahead of investment opportunities.

In 2008, the hedge fund said, it invested all of the remaining capital investors had committed to it shortly after Lehman Brothers failed, and also raised an additional $800 million. The hedge fund said it "could have deployed ten times as much in what turned out to be amazing (and fleeting) opportunities."

The firm managed about $33 billion as of April 1, the letter said.

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$33 BILLION HEDGE FUND: There could be a recession if the Trump administration doesn't get its act together

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U.S. President Donald Trump reacts as he walks with the President of the European Council Donald Tusk (not pictured) after a meeting in Brussels, Belgium, May 25, 2017.      REUTERS/Eric Vidal

Billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott Management says we might be in for a recession if the Trump administration doesn't pass reforms in taxes, regulation and health care.

Trump took office with a plan to cut taxes, cut back on regulations and boost infrastructure spending — all in a bid to raise economic growth. The plans have mostly been stymied by political disagreements over healthcare reform and a probe into Russia's potential interference in the election. 

In a private first-quarter letter to investors reviewed by Business Insider, the $33 billion activist hedge fund laid out its concerns with the current situation.

"Although the growth agenda of the Trump administration is slow to get off the ground, markets still anticipate that much of it will be enacted, sooner or later," the letter said.

But if the Trump administration fails to pass reforms, "the impact on the US dollar and equity markets would likely be negative," the hedge fund wrote.

"There are actually forces in place that could point to a relatively near-term recession in the absence of solid new pro-growth policies," the fund added.

Singer visited Trump in the White House in February, and reportedly donated funds for Trump's inauguration. "He was a very strong opponent and now he's a very strong ally and I appreciate that,"Trump said in February 

The automobile industry is one particular red flag supporting the notion of a potential recession, Elliott said.

"The number of cars sold has started to come off its historical highs, the financing terms for cars have been increasingly eased and lengthened (accelerating current purchases but building in a deeper falloff for the future), subprime auto loan defaults are rising, and used vehicle prices are falling," the fund said. 

Elliott, which raised $5 billion in less than 24 hours earlier this month, also said it has been building up its cash reserve to deploy during future market turmoil.

Elliott managed about $33 billion as of April 1, the letter said.

SEE ALSO: A legendary hedge fund that raised $5 billion in 24 hours expects 'all hell to break loose'

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A $33 billion hedge fund shared 5 lessons that have shaped how it invests

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Paul Singer

A $33 billion hedge fund has some advice to share as its industry faces notable headwinds.

Elliott Management, an activist hedge fund founded by billionaire Paul Singer, laid out some of its major lessons in a private first-quarter letter to investors. A copy of the note was reviewed by Business Insider.

"Some of these lessons needed to be actually experienced to be incorporated at a deep level in the decision-making of a team, whereas others could be gleaned secondhand," the hedge fund said.

Here are the five pieces advice, which the fund said came in no particular order: 

  • "No security price is too high (or low) that it cannot go higher (or lower);
  • Turns in markets are impossible to time;
  • Big changes in market prices frequently occur far in advance of when the reasons for the changes become apparent, and by then it is too late to incorporate the new information into one’s trading at the old prices;
  • One of the most important reasons to avoid significant losses is to avoid the painful and sometimes terminal effect of severe adversity on the quality of money managers’ decision-making processes; and
  • A wide and deep education about the world, not just about capital structures, corporate business strategies and industry dynamics, is essential to the long-term success of money managers."

These lessons "have shaped Elliott’s attitude towards trading, investing, predictability of markets, risk management and building an organization," Elliott added.

The hedge fund industry has been facing notable challenges, such as complaints from clients over high fees and underperformance, and several iconic funds, like Eton Park and Perry Capital, have shut down. Elliott, in its letter, laid out this backdrop in explaining what it had learned over the past several decades as it has grown to be one of the biggest players.

Elliott appears to be growing even more.  The fund, which raised $5 billion in less than 24 hours earlier this month, says it has been building up its cash reserve to deploy during future market turmoil.

Elliott's flagship fund, called EALP, has a compounded annual return of 13.5% since launching on February 1, 1977, according to the letter.

SEE ALSO: A legendary hedge fund that raised $5 billion in 24 hours expects 'all hell to break loose'

DON'T MISS: $33 BILLION HEDGE FUND: There could be a recession if the Trump administration doesn't get its act together

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Iconic hedge fund manager Seth Klarman says investors are missing huge risks

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Seth Klarman

An iconic hedge fund manager says investors are misperceiving risks in the markets — at a time when markets are hitting historic highs.

Baupost Group's Seth Klarman laid out his concerns in April in a client letter, a copy of which was reviewed by Business Insider.

Risk, Klarman wrote, is the most important consideration when investing, and investors are being too trusting.

To make his point, Klarman contrasted today with the start of the financial crisis.

"When share prices are low, as they were in the fall of 2008 into early 2009, actual risk is usually quite muted while perception of risk is very high," Klarman wrote. "By contrast, when securities prices are high, as they are today, the perception of risk is muted, but the risks to investors are quite elevated."

Klarman oversees one of the US's largest hedge fund firms, with some $30 billion under management. He has a huge following on Wall Street — investors named his book, "Margin of Safety," their favorite investment book in a recent SumZero survey. A used copy on Amazon costs more than $900.

He is no stranger to raising concerns on the markets under President Donald Trump. Earlier this year, he laid out his worries in a separate investor letter, raising red flags about Trump's proposed tax cuts, for instance, which could considerably raise the government's deficit.

Markets have rallied since Trump was elected in November, as Wall Street expressed confidence in the president's plans to cut taxes, roll back regulations, and boost infrastructure spending. Even as the Trump administration faces notable headwinds — investigations into Russia's influence on the election, flubs in passing healthcare reform — the markets don't seem to care.

There could be several reasons for that. In Klarman's more recent letter, he flagged three forces that investors are regularly combatting:

  • Greed and fear, which "pressure investors to do the wrong thing at every turn."
  • "Aggressive brokers, investment bankers, and traders who routinely promise more than they can deliver."
  • Investors focusing on the short term and trend following, and restrictions that are supposed to limit risk but prevent outperformance.

As for potentially missing the Trump rally by continuing to hedge and focus on the long term?

"We truly don't care," Klarman wrote. "We're not going to fall into the trap of trying to outsmart others with clever short-term trading."

Baupost managed $30.3 billion at the start of the year, according to Hedge Fund Intelligence's Billion Dollar Club ranking. A spokeswoman for the firm declined to comment.

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Steve Cohen reportedly is prepping the biggest hedge-fund launch ever

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Steve Cohen

Steve Cohen is looking to raise $20 billion for his big hedge-fund comeback, The Wall Street Journal reported.

That would make his fund the biggest US hedge-fund launch, coming about four years after his previous hedge-fund firm, SAC Capital Advisors, was barred from managing external money and pleaded guilty to insider trading.

Cohen was never charged, and he neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing in a civil settlement. He is allowed to manage external capital again in 2018.

The $20 billion Cohen is seeking is a step up from SAC, which at its peak managed $16 billion. However, Cohen may be lowering his onetime sky-high fees for investors, once totaling 3% in management costs and half of all trading profits, according to The Journal.

Cohen's launch would also be nearly double the next biggest launch, Bridgewater's Optimal fund, which launched with about $11 billion, according to data from the industry publication Absolute Return cited by The Journal.

Since Cohen was barred from managing outside money, he has been running a 1,000-person family office, Point72 Asset Management, which manages about $11 billion, including his fortune.

Most or all of that $11 billion is expected to be rolled into the $20 billion launch, according to The Journal.

A media representative for Cohen declined to comment.

Read The Journal's full report »

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NOW WATCH: How billionaire hedge fund titan Steve Cohen walked away from the biggest insider trading scandal in history


One of the most anticipated hedge fund launches of 2017 keeps raising money

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bryant park films

One of the most anticipated hedge fund launches of the year continues to rake in fresh money, despite a rough start in terms of performance. 

Ben Melkman's Light Sky Macro dropped about 3.5% from March through the end of April, according to an investor document reviewed by Business Insider. May performance numbers weren't immediately clear. 

The fund is continuing to raise assets, however, and is set to manage $1.5 billion on June 1, according to a person familiar with the matter. That makes Light Sky one of the biggest launches of the year, and marks a quick step up in raising fresh money; the fund managed around $880 million at the end of April, according to the investor document.

The fund is also soft-closing, which means that it will not accept money from new investors but may arrange for existing investors to add capital, the person said.

The fund is down at a time when other macro funds are struggling. Brevan Howard's master fund is down 3.1% this year through the end of April, according to an investor document reviewed by Business Insider. Caxton Global dropped 6.6% through April 4, according to performance reported by HSBC. Discovery Capital Management was down about 12% through the first three weeks of May, and Rokos Capital dropped 4.7% in the first quarter, Bloomberg reported.

New York-based Light Sky Macro is led by Melkman, a former partner at Europe-based Brevan Howard Asset Management. 

Melkman was the lead manager on Brevan Howard's $500 million Argentina fund, which returned money to investors after delivering an 18% return since its inception.

His fund has been expanding, with high profile hires such as 15-year Deutsche Bank vet, Jérôme Saragoussi, as director of trading strategy. The fund recently added Deutsche Bank's Luigi Gentile as a senior foreign exchange volatility trader and has 24 people on staff, the person familiar with the firm said.

The new fund's investor list includes several big-name hedge funders, including Steve Cohen, Third Point's Dan Loeb, Moore Capital's Louis Bacon, Coatue's Philippe Laffont, and Stone Milliner's Jens-Peter Stein, Business Insider previously reported.

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We just witnessed 2 perfect examples of Wall Street billionaires spinning major fails

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Leon Cooperman

It seems that in this world of constant Trump-watching, some of Wall Street's recent foibles have gone unnoticed.

Allow me to get you up to speed.

The mood on Wall Street right now, especially in hedge-fund land where beating the market is paramount, is a bit desperate and confused.

Returns are limp and hedge-fund investors are looking to take their money elsewhere. 

This is where the spin comes into the picture. Here's a pair of classic examples that have caught our eye recently.

Both come from billionaire hedge-fund managers — the "Masters of the Universe"— who've seen better days. And considering that these days are so fraught, you should be ready for more.

'It's very simple'

Our first example comes from hedge-fund legend Leon Cooperman, of Omega Advisors. A few months ago, the Feds charged Cooperman with insider trading.

They alleged that Cooperman used his status as a large shareholder of a company to learn about something that led to a 31% jump in the stock. He bought shares on that information, despite agreeing not to, and afterward asked an executive at the company to "to fabricate a story to tell if questioned about this trading activity."

Now, we can't say if any of these claims are true because the Securities and Exchange Commission never had to prove them in court. We do know that Cooperman settled the case with a $4.9 million fine (a slap on the wrist for a billionaire) and without admitting wrongdoing.

Why did he do this? He explained it all to CNBC's Scott Wapner (emphasis added):

"It's very simple, he said. My lawyers told me the probability of my winning would be overwhelmingly high. If I didn't win, it would have nothing to do with the merits of the case, it would have to do with the fact that I'm a former Goldman Partner, I'm a hedge fund manager, I'm wealthy, and those are not factoids that impress juries. And the cost of the trial would be probably $15 to $20 million and go on for a couple of years. Because if I didn't win, we would likely seek appeals."

Oh, you decided not to go to trial because there would be too much winning? And if you didn't win, it would be because you're such a winner at life?

It's true that the smart thing for Cooperman to do was to take the slap on the wrist and get on with life. He's not wrong that it would've cost a fortune to address — especially since he seems so sure it would've taken appeals to clear his name.

But recall that Cooperman knew all this when he vowed to fight the charges, repeatedly, even telling investors he would return their money if it became too much of a distraction to do so.

Six months later, he settled. After the settlement, Cooperman explained that the SEC's light touch spoke volumes for the suit itself — suggesting that it didn't have the goods to convict him of anything anyway — and that was all he could say.

None of this is to say that Cooperman is guilty of anything.

But it is a marvelous example of Wall Street spin, and we're gonna hear more of this kind of thing if the market doesn't improve for hedge funds. 

When people get desperate they take risks and they make mistakes. According to Tiger 21, a peer-to-peer networking/learning group for ultra-high-net-worth investors and their clients, the super rich are getting tired of their hedge fund managers performing below alpha. They're pulling their money, and at least from this group, hedge funds are seeing a level of investment unseen since the financial crisis.

tiger 21 hedge fund allocation

On to our next example.

Opportunities in today's market

Earlier this month, the SkyBridge Alternatives conference in Las Vegas — the normally energetic hedge-fund festivus — was defined by lethargy. Blame it on Trump, or bad returns, or just a muted Master of Ceremonies: SkyBridge founder Anthony "The Mooch" Scaramucci.

The mood did not improve when Bill Ackman took the stage. The billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital has been suffering since 2015, when his bet on Valeant Pharmaceuticals blew a giant crater in his portfolio. That year he lost some 20% for his investors, and the entire Street wondered if the silver-haired former boy-wonder would be forced close shop for the second time in his career.

But he didn't. And so he is on an apology tour after finally delivering part of the mea culpa Wall Street needed to hear. In a one-on-one interview with Scaramucci, Ackman sounded conciliatory, unless you were paying close attention to the words. Valeant, he said, had been a learning experience.

Ackman offered that he had gotten "the opportunity" to testify before Congress about what was going to the company.

Oh, an "opportunity."

"Opportunity" is generally not the word one uses to describe being summoned to Washington by a bipartisan group of Senators who want you and your associate — the company's CEO who, was forced to testify after being subpoenaed — to answer for activity at a company that makes up a large chunk of your portfolio and on which you have a board seat.

This is especially true if that company being investigated for fraud and sued by its investors (like Valeant), or if you are being sued for insider trading (still ongoing) over your relationship with that company (Valeant).

No one at the hearing Ackman attended, which took place in April of last year, looked like they were having a good time. See?

valeant ackman pearson

Everyone loves an exciting opportunity in the market.

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Steve Cohen is about to find out if he's the most notorious hedge-fund manager in America or 'the best investor of all time'

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steve cohen

Steve Cohen, the billionaire who ran one of Wall Street's most infamous hedge funds, is trying to stage a big comeback.

Less than four years after his old firm pleaded guilty to insider trading, Cohen is launching a new fund, reportedly with a goal of managing as much as $20 billion.

That'll include $11 billion already in his family office, The Wall Street Journal reports, adding that Cohen plans to raise another $9 billion from outsiders.

If he does start with $20 billion, it would be the biggest US hedge-fund launch in history, according to the industry publication Absolute Return. But none of the investors and advisers Business Insider spoke with for this story said they've seen or heard a pitch yet.

Still, that Cohen, now 60 years old, would seek to run a hedge fund again has probably been the industry's biggest open secret. Ever since the insider-trading allegations put one of his traders in jail and left Cohen barred from managing other people's money until 2018, Cohen has been working on revamping his image.

Point72 Asset Management, which has been managing Cohen's billions, quickly became known as the most public of family offices. He hired public-relations pros to shape the firm's message, launched an investing academy for college grads, imposed a ban on hiring from a New York hedge fund that came under scrutiny, and brought on a former federal prosecutor to keep the fund in check.

That was all during a period in which he wasn't legally allowed to accept outside capital. The Securities and Exchange Commission in 2013 barred Cohen's SAC Capital from managing outside money after it pleaded guilty to insider trading. Cohen wasn't personally charged. That ban lifts in 2018, following a settlement that ended charges that Cohen hadn't properly supervised a portfolio manager, Mathew Martoma, who had engaged in the insider trading.

But raising $9 billion is a lofty goal for a hedge-fund manager with a storied past, both admired and reviled, depending on who you ask. People close to Cohen said they were surprised by the amount being sought, mostly because it's tough to raise money, let alone a fund of that size.

Many investors remember Cohen for knockout returns and as a legendary stock trader. Many who have worked for him said they would love to again; others think Cohen's returns came illegally, from insider trading, and that the government somehow failed to bring charges against him.

Cohen is also launching a fund when his investment approach is somewhat out of style and faces stiff competition from both new and established funds. He's also planning to adopt a fee structure that many investors don't like.

The question now is, what matters more, Cohen's past or his future?

"Cohen should definitely go down as the best investor of all time," said Ed Butowsky at Dallas-based Chapwood Capital Investment Management. Butowsky said he had not been pitched on Cohen's new fund but previously invested clients' money with SAC Capital.

"He had a historical return of 25% with a standard deviation of seven," Butowsky said. "Anyone who understands our industry knows that is incredible. And that’s after his management fee and performance fee."

Investors like Butowsky have no concerns about Cohen's past, and say he has been unfairly targeted.

"What killed me, and it killed my spirit a lot, was that a man could be found not guilty of anything," he said. "He was found guilty in the public eye and still to this day you can’t tell me something he did."

A spokesman for Cohen declined to comment.

The competition

Cohen's fund would compete with new hedge-fund shops with high pedigree but no stain.

These include a big fund expected from two Millennium Management chiefs later this year or early next. Then there are other new launches, like Brandon Haley's Holocene Advisors, which started earlier in 2017 with about $1.5 billion.

izzy Israel EnglanderCohen is known for long-short equity investing, which has grown out of fashion amid underperformance over the past few years. (Cohen also has a quant unit and has been expanding on incorporating big data into the traditional strategies.)

Cohen's fund is also proposing a pass-through fee structure, according to people familiar with the matter, which is favored among managers of his cohort. It will also include a fluctuating performance fee, The Journal reported. Previously, at SAC, Cohen charged as much as a 3% management and 50% performance fee, lavish even by hedge-fund standards.

The new structure could be problematic. Many investors criticize this kind of setup. Exactly what they are paying for is not transparent — as Reuters noted, they may be on the hook for expensive marketing dinners — and even in down years, the fees add up.

In a pass-through expense model, generally investors take on the costs of running the fund. It can be risky, as Folger Hill, a hedge-fund startup launched by one of Cohen's former talent recruiters, can attest. If some investors decide to pull out capital, that means fewer investors are taking on the same costs, and it becomes more expensive for those who remain to invest.

The model can also be set up in a way that investors, in addition to paying the pass-through management expenses, pay performance fees to individual portfolio managers if they log a gain — even if the overall fund is losing money.

This isn't necessarily how Cohen would set up the fund; the details have yet to come out. But this setup can seem unfair to investors, who are paying a lot of money even as they rack up losses, much higher than the often criticized 2-and-20 model. (That's where investors pay a standard 2% management fee and 20% of profits that the manager generates.)

All this doesn't mean that Cohen won't attract money.

"The majority of investors do look at him in the sort of marquee status," said Sam Won, founder of Global Risk Management Advisors, which advises institutional investors and hedge funds. "If anybody can get those terms, it’d probably be Steve."

Underwhelming performance

Steve CohenInvestors in SAC Capital, Cohen's predecessor firm, remember the knockout returns. That's what many investors in the expected fund are hoping for, too.

But in the years since Cohen's shop settled with the feds over insider trading, performance has waned.

In the first few years after the government's crackdown, Cohen posted stellar returns.

In 2013, the last year SAC ran, the fund was up 20%. In 2014, after the hedge fund converted into a family office, it generated as much as $3 billion in profit. In 2015, returns were close to 16%. Over these years, Cohen largely beat the hedge-fund competition.

The past year and a half has been less kind. His family office didn't make or lose any money in 2016, and hasn't made any money this year, people familiar with the situation say.

Who would invest?

Another issue is the past. Some investors won't be able to get over what happened.

While this group is likely to be in the minority, there will be some who "will say, 'Where there's smoke, there's fire,'" said Won, the advisor to investors and hedge funds.

That doesn't mean there won't be a lot of people signing checks. Investors have been seeking higher returns at a time when many hedge funds haven't performed well.

"They'll say, 'Maybe he was aggressive and he just got caught and he served his time out, so we're fine with that,'" Won said.

But there's still a sale to be made.

"He will likely be prepared to talk about things like compliance and risk management to give people comfort," Won added. "He’s going to have a very good story around those things."

There is some disagreement among industry insiders over what kind of investors are likely to invest. Some say that public pensions, which have been big funders of the hedge-fund industry, aren't likely to put money with Cohen, especially given the scrutiny they've already faced paying high fees to billionaire managers. Family offices, which manage money for rich people, are probably more likely, as are sovereign wealth funds, these people say.

Others say it won't matter.

"The majority of money will come from institutional investors — pensions, endowments, foundations, and funds of funds — but it’s not for the reason of the Steve Cohen thing," Won said. "It's because that's what makes up the greatest dollars that invest in hedge funds and alternatives today."

Why does a multibillionaire need outside money?

Whether he raises the money or not, Cohen is already worth billions, one observer says. You could say he has already won. Which raises the question: Given the hurdles, why does a multibillionaire start a fund?

It could give Point72's thousand or so staffers some solace knowing that the fund is growing and will potentially be more stable. If Cohen decided to pull out his money, other investors could fill the gap, a current staffer said. Having other investors in the fund would also allow Cohen to put his money into other ventures. He has already started a new Palo Alto office to invest in early-stage tech companies, and he has been an avid art collector.

Having other investors come on board also means he gets to have his billions managed for free, or at least for a lot less than when he's footing the bill by himself.

Then there is also the knowledge that, years after the government tried to shut him down, he could come out of it richer than ever.

SEE ALSO: A legendary hedge fund that raised $5 billion in 24 hours expects 'all hell to break loose'

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A hedge fund veteran is trying to bring quant trading to a new market — sports betting

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  • Sports trading company Stratagem raising a £25 million fund to bet on sports;
  • Company set up by ex-hedge funder, run by former Goldman Sachs partner;
  • Stratagem uses artificial intelligence to analyse football, tennis, and basketball, identifying betting opportunities;
  • One of several startups trying to make betting markets more like financial markets.

Stratagem   Andreas Kourkorinis   Founder and Head of Trading 7LONDON — "A good analogy is that we’re building these robots to let them run around the floor," Andreas Koukorinis, the founder of Stratagem, told Business Insider.

"Well, the first time we tried to deploy it the robot fell on its face."

The "robot" was a predictive analytics programme for sports betting, meant to use machine learning and artificial intelligence to crunch through huge amounts of data and find an edge in the market to bet on.

Koukorinis had been working on the programme for around a year by this point. He had quit $3.3 billion hedge fund giant Fortress in late 2011 with the idea of bringing the analytical rigour of hedge funds to sports betting. Quantitative trading — also known as quant trading — had long existed in financial markets, where complex mathematical models were used to identify trading opportunities. Why wasn't there something similar in sports?

"2013 was me in my living room with my wife being like what are you doing with your life?" he recalls. "You used to work in finance, we used to fly first class, and now you’re sitting here in a t-shirt in our living room with two guys, you guys are barely speaking — this is crazy. I said, no, no, there’s something here."

'This is the way to have an insight into AI for trading'

Today, Koukorinis' vision is starting to pay off. Stratagem now has an office of around 30 people on Russell Square, London, which includes former Goldman Sachs quants and ex-CERN scientists. The predictive model — the robot that fell down — is up and running and bringing in money for the company. Stratagem has an internal syndicate, betting its own money and making a return.

The company is also hoping to raise a fund of around £25 million by the autumn that it will invest — in effect, a sports betting hedge fund. Most of the trading will be automated.

Stratagem   Charles McGarraugh   CEO 1"The pitch [to institutional investors] is really straightforward," says Charles McGarraugh, Stratagem's CEO. "Sports lend themselves well to this kind of predictive analytics because it’s a large number of repeated events. And it’s uncorrelated to the rest of the market. And the duration of the asset class is short — things can only diverge from fundamentals for so long because then you’re on to the next one pretty quickly."

McGarraugh spent 16 years at Goldman Sachs prior to joining Stratagem as CEO in September last year. He knew Koukorinis through work, was an early investor in the company, and found himself increasingly drawn to what his friend was up to.

"One of the reasons I was keen to stay close to Andreas was because this is the way to have an insight into AI for trading as it evolves," he says. "That’s an interesting thing in terms of the bigger picture."

Koukorinis says: "I was fortunate enough to get access to machine learning before this boom came up. I observed how people set up DeepMind [the famous London AI lab acquired by Google for £400 million in 2014], which was across the street for a while, and other AI companies."

'Think about oil in the ground. It's the same as data'

Stratagem's business has two main parts: data collection and processing. At both stages, the company believes it has an edge.

On the data collection front, Stratagem doesn't just rely on publically available data sources but generates its own in-house data. The company employs around 65 football analysts based all over the world covering local leagues.

Koukorinis says: "Think about oil in the ground, all of this in various locations. It’s the same thing as data. Our first job is to collect up oil and bring it to the ground. We collect Twitter feeds, crowdsource videos, market data, we collect from operators, action data we buy from various sources, tech data the analysts write — all of those sources. That’s job number one."

Once the data is collected, Stratagem must crunch the numbers. Its programme can not only read different data sources but decides the correct weighting to give each source. The end goal is for the model to spot "alpha" in the market — mispriced odds where Stratagem has a better chance of winning. The programme then places bets, both before and during games.

"For us, it’s really about having access to data that comes from multiple sources and of different textures and having the backbone of the overlay to be able to analyse them," Koukorinis says. "That’s really the edge."

Stratagem has built models looking at football, tennis, and basketball, and is bringing in money trading its own book.

'Whether it’s a football match or Brexit — they are akin to options trading'

The idea of generating proprietary data and using technology to analyse sports betting markets isn't new. I wrote extensively last year about Starlizard, a private syndicate that does just that to generate big returns for staff and partners.

Stratagem is not using its tool just for its proprietary bets but to pitch these systems to finance firms and fund managers.

"It’s interesting to see how event trading is becoming more of an interest to people I’m in touch with in the hedge fund space," says Todd Johnson, the COO of betting exchange Smarkets. "All these things, in the end, are outcomes that we’re trying to take a bet on. Whether it’s a football match or whether Brexit is going to happen or you want to bet on insurance markets — they are in essence akin to options trading."

Todd Johnson SmarketsJohnson, who left a hedge fund he cofounded to join Smarkets, believes the sports betting market will attract more sophisticated investors as the infrastructure around improves.

"Coming from the hedge fund world, a lot of the people in financial services and who worked in the City bet," Johnson says. "They’ve always viewed it as something that was entertainment.

"As we start to get to tools that look and feel like the tools they use to trade equities, they’re starting to get that this is an interesting space to trade in."

Like Stratagem, Smarkets is hoping to professionalise and financialise sports betting. It is working on a Bloomberg-style interface to help give punters more information and pitches itself as a home for sports traders. Its platform supports automated market making bots that people can set loose via APIs to trade the markets.

Johnson says: "When Jason [Trost, Smarkets' founder] started the company he saw a lot of parallels between the opportunities in the betting markets and sports trading markets, and what happens generally in financial services.

"If you go back to where equity markets were in the 1970s and 1980s, it wasn’t a market that people actively invested in, in terms of the average investor. The technology didn’t lend itself to having great price discovery, it was expensive to trade. All those things were adjusted in the 80s and the 90s. In the betting industry, we’re seeing that."

'Maybe we’re on the line between genius and madness'Theye are still a long way off, however.

"The betting market certainly doesn’t have the scale, liquidity, and the velocity that you see in traditional financial services," says Johnson.

Betfair is the largest betting exchange and the total sportsbook of its parent company Paddy Power Betfair last year was £5.6 billion. That averages out at £14.4 million a day. That is simply not enough volume to interest most fund managers.

Attempts in the past to set up a sports betting fund backed by traditional finance have also struggled. As the Financial Times pointed out last month, London-based Centaur Corporate's Galileo fund bet on football, racing, and tennis matches. It projected returns of 15 to 20% but lost $2.5 million and collapsed in 2012, two years after launch.

People are captivated with the idea of a lot of smart guys sitting in an attic, looking at predictive analytics for sports

McGarraugh says he is confident Stratagem will be able to raise the £25 million or thereabouts it is targeting. He says the fund will "not be offered widely," with the money coming from Stratagem's associates.

Still, the company is hedging its bets. As well as raising the fund, Stratagem is also selling tips to punters generated by its programme and marketing its services to bookmakers to help fine tune their odds.

McGarraugh says: "This process of searching for the right business model — how do you commercialise what you’ve built? I feel pretty good that we’re on the right track."

The reception among bookmakers has been encouraging so far, he says. "I think people are captivated with the idea of a lot of smart guys sitting in an attic, looking at predictive analytics for sports."

The former Goldman partner also believes that the tools Stratagem are developing could well stretch beyond sports betting. The core USP, he says, is "enhancing your performance but leveraging technology, using the latest AI-style technologies." That could apply to traditional finance just as much as sports betting.

He adds: "Maybe we’re on the line between genius and madness, but I’m pretty sure we’re on the right side. It’s a big global market. It can be better. We want to be part of this."

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GOLDMAN SACHS: These are the 11 stocks most hated by hedge funds

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trader

The stock market may be hitting record highs all the time, but under the surface lurk companies that draw the ire of hedge funds.

They span industries ranging from retail to internet software, and they have earned the unfortunate distinction of being either overvalued or downright fundamentally flawed.

To see which stocks bear the biggest burden of hedge fund shorts, the equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs analyzed 821 funds that hold a combined $1.9 trillion in gross equity positions.

Goldman then identified the stocks that have the highest short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding. They limit the screen to companies that have market caps greater than $1 billion and are also held by 10 or more hedge funds.

Here's a list of the 11 stocks in the index that best fit that criteria:

11. Greenbrier Companies

Ticker: GBX

Subsector: Construction machinery & heavy trucks

Total return year-to-date: 9%

Short interest as % of market cap: 31%

Source: Goldman Sachs



10. Pandora Media

Ticker: P

Subsector: Internet software & services

Total return year-to-date: -25%

Short interest as % of market cap: 32%

Source: Goldman Sachs



9. Frontier Communications

Ticker: FTR

Subsector: Integrated telecom services

Total return year-to-date: -60%

Short interest as % of market cap: 32%

Source: Goldman Sachs



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

DALIO: Trump is putting a small part of America ahead of the entire world

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Ray Dalio LinkedIn

The founder of the world's largest hedge fund says President Donald Trump is showcasing a tendency to choose the part over the whole.

In a note posted on his LinkedIn page Monday, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates said he was "especially concerned about the consequences of his pursuing so much conflict."

"When faced with the choices between what's good for the whole and what's good for the part, and between harmony and conflict, he has a strong tendency to choose the part and conflict," Dalio wrote on his LinkedIn page.

He added:

"By 'the whole,' I mean the whole ecosystem, the whole world community, and whole of the US, and by 'the part,' I mean the part of the US that he is presumably trying to help."

Dalio cited Trump's decision last week to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, which had been agreed to by all but two countries, calling it "consistent with his increasingly clear patterns of behavior."

Trump's actions are leaving people scrambling to figure out which Americans Trump is trying to help, such as American manufacturing workers, and at the expense of whom, Dalio wrote.

People are left questioning, for instance, whether they should support the "part he is trying to protect (e.g., American manufacturing workers)" or whether they are "more aligned with those who will lose out (e.g., immigrants, those who will lose benefits from his budget changes)."

In the end, Dalio said, Trump's strategy might backfire on him:

"Sometimes conflict produces better results and sometimes it produces worse results for the people who are pursuing it to get what they want. For example, if Donald Trump were optimizing for his own well-being through conflict, it's entirely possible that he would undermine his own well-being because the retaliation could be more damaging to him than the cooperation."

Dalio and his $150 billion investment firm have speculated on Trump, and his implications for markets, for months, though those predictions haven't always played out.

Last year, Bridgewater told clients on the day of the election that markets would slump if Trump were elected. (They have since rallied.) More recently, Bridgewater said stocks would drop if Trump were impeached, according to a client note reviewed by Business Insider.

SEE ALSO: Steve Cohen is about to find out if he's the most notorious hedge-fund manager in America or 'the best investor of all time'

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The 'smart money' is playing tug of war with a crucial part of the Trump trade

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There's a tug-of-war brewing under the surface of one of the most popular Trump trades.

Financial stocks soared more than any other group in the months following the presidential election on expectations that the president would loosen bank regulations. Now the market's most sophisticated participants are divided as to whether the strength can continue.

On one hand, hedge funds have largely thrown in the towel. They hold financials the most underweight out of any sector, relative to the Russell 3000. On the other hand, large-cap mutual fund portfolios have financial firms as their second-most overweight industry, compared to the benchmark.

The resulting allocation discrepancy for financial stocks is one of the widest out of any industry group, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs.

As they wait to see who is correct, hedge funds and their mutual fund counterparts are doubling down, at least judging by allocation changes made during the first quarter. Both groups boosted their relative over/underweightings, exhibiting increased conviction, Goldman data show.

GS fund shifts

Still, not every area of the stock market is so contentious among the different "smart money" groups. Both hedge funds and mutual funds agree that tech stocks are where it's at. Large-cap mutual funds have about one-quarter of their allocation devoted to the group, while growth funds have 37% earmarked for tech, according to Goldman data.

Generally speaking, a great deal of current trading sentiment is rooted in earnings growth, and future profit forecasts mirror the level of investor conviction. Tech companies in the S&P 500 are projected to see earnings expand by 18.9% in 2017, the most out of any industry in the benchmark, ex-energy.

Forecasts for financials, while strong, are a bit more tempered. The group is expected to grow profits by 12.1% this year, right in line with the S&P 500, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

SEE ALSO: The champions of the Trump trade are on life support

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Hedge funds are loading up on bets against one of the Trump trade's biggest winners

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Trump

Few areas of the US market performed better than small-cap stocks following the presidential election. But hedge funds are betting the group's best days are finished.

The Russell 2000 has surged by 17% since Donald Trump's victory — handily outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 3 percentage points — amid expectations that the more domestically focused group would be best positioned to benefit from a lower corporate tax rate.

Now that investors are growing increasing skeptical that any of Trump's policies will be passed in timely fashion, those big relative gains in small-cap shares look awfully precarious.

Large speculative investors agree. They hold the biggest net short position in six years on the Russell 2000, according to data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

That hedge funds were the most bullish in history on the small-cap gauge as recently as January highlights the degree to which investors have thrown in the towel on the so-called Trump trade.

Russell 2000 Hedge Fund Positioning

While major indexes still sit at or near record highs, the consensus is that the strength is due more to earnings growth and improving fundamentals than to any lingering expectations of major legislation from Trump.

But not all profit expansion is created equal, and looking at simple year-over-year statistics doesn't tell the whole story. Morgan Stanley recommends looking at a measure called earnings revision breadth, which looks not only at upward adjustments to profit forecasts but also at how widespread they are.

Using this metric, the S&P 500 looks to be in much better shape. The number of companies in the main US equity benchmark that are revising future profits higher is outpacing those making downward adjustments by the most since 2012. Looking at this same measure for the Russell 2000, the small-cap gauge is underperforming the S&P 500 by the most in two years, according to Morgan Stanley data.

And with hedge funds still net long the S&P 500 while betting against the Russell 2000, it's clear this development is not lost on them.

Morgan Stanley earnings breadth

SEE ALSO: The 'smart money' is playing tug of war with a crucial part of the Trump trade

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Traders are piling into Bill Ackman's favorite short bet (HLF)

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bill ackman

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the outspoken critic of Herbalife who publicly bet $1 billion against the company, took his share of lumps as the stock price failed to cooperate.

Now that Herbalife's shares have started to weaken, finally allowing the Pershing Square Capital Management founder to make back some money on the wager, he finds himself with plenty of company.

Short interest on Herbalife sits at $1.8 billion — up $635 million, or 55%, for the year, according to data compiled by the financial-analytics firm S3 Partners. The measure is approaching a historical high of $2 billion set in July 2013.

Those short positions have yielded $106 million in mark-to-market profit in the past two days alone as the stock has slipped by 5.7%. Two-thirds of that belongs to Ackman, S3 says.

So why did Herbalife's stock price start cooperating with Ackman's bearish view? On Monday, the company trimmed its full-year forecast, saying revenue would grow by just 0.5% to 3.5% in 2017, down from an estimate of 6% in May. It also foresees a year-over-year sales decline of as much as 6% in the second quarter.

The adjustments are a direct result of last year's settlement with the Federal Trade Commission, which made Herbalife change its business model and pay $200 million for distributor refunds.

The subsequent share weakness is a result that Ackman has struggled to will into existence since he first called Herbalife a pyramid scheme in a scathing research report in December 2012. He doubled down in July 2014, giving a widely publicized presentation arguing why Herbalife should go to zero.

But as Ackman found out the hard way during the period since his first public rebuke of Herbalife, the company's shares are surprisingly resilient, making it a risky short bet.

Herbalife surged by 124% from the start of 2013 through Friday, experiencing periods of strength that undoubtedly squeezed short positions and caused pain for Herbalife bears. To add insult to injury for Ackman specifically, the stock rallied by 15% during his ill-fated 2014 slideshow.

But with Herbalife's newly tempered forward guidance, the tide may be shifting in his favor — as long as traders don't cover their bearish wagers, as they have the past two times when short interest was this high. S3 thinks it could be different this time.

"With HLF's management revising forward looking revenue guidance lower, shorts may stay in their positions longer in order to see the impact of continued FTC compliance," Ihor Dusaniwsky, the head of research at S3, wrote in a client note.

HLF share price

SEE ALSO: A crucial stock market signal just got its most bullish reading of the year

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Billionaire Paul Singer doesn't care what you think

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Paul Singer

At first Paul Singer thought it was a joke. 

The April 11 letter — sent to the Elliott Management Corp. founder from Klaus Kleinfeld, whom the hedge fund billionaire was trying to oust from his post as CEO of Alcoa spinoff Arconic — made no sense.

The three-paragraph missive mentioned a World Cup match Singer had attended more than ten years ago, and even included a commemorative soccer ball. But in a postscript the letter took a strange turn: “If I manage to find a native American Indian’s feather headdress I will send this additional essential part of the memories. And by the way: ‘Singing in the Rain’ is indeed a wonderful classic — even though I never tried to sing it in a fountain.”

Singer claims he had no idea what Kleinfeld was talking about. But one thing was clear: The letter gave him a crucial advantage in his battle with Arconic, one of the most bruising shareholder activist campaigns in recent memory — and one whose outcome could cement Singer’s reputation as today’s leading activist, a man unafraid to use bare-knuckle tactics in an increasingly gentlemanly game.

With shares of Arconic up 43 percent for the year, April 11 was already an important day for the hedge fund, which has a 13.2 percent stake worth $1.6 billion in the aerospace-parts maker. Around the time the Kleinfeld letter arrived, Elliott’s team on the Arconic campaign was making its pitch to Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), a proxy adviser whose recommendation can make or break an activist’s effort. 

By day’s end Elliott was required to file its presentation — a 322-page PowerPoint deck — with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In it Elliott laid out its case for change, with nine pages of “ethical” concerns about Kleinfeld. The hedge fund insinuated he was involved in a bribery scandal that had wracked Siemens when he was the CEO. (Siemens paid more than $2.6 billion to clear its name, but Kleinfeld was not charged with wrongdoing.) It alleged he had engaged in vote buying to assure his continued control at Arconic. It suggested Kleinfeld had a so-called “impunitive” personality and could not take responsibility for his failures.

Preet BhararaWhile other shareholders and Arconic executives were being bombarded with the new deck, Singer’s general counsel, Richard Zabel — formerly Preet Bharara’s No. 2 at the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office — was furiously penning a letter to the Arconic board informing it of Kleinfeld’s bizarre letter. In it, he wrote, were “veiled suggestions that [Kleinfeld] might intimidate or extort Mr. Singer.” Almost immediately Elliott and Arconic began negotiating for a settlement to end the proxy battle. Six days later, on April 17, Arconic announced Kleinfeld’s departure.

Given Singer’s assertion that the letter was based on “completely false insinuations,” extortion may seem a bit far-fetched. Fellow activist Jeffrey Ubben, CEO of ValueAct Capital, went so far as to call the ouster of Kleinfeld a “prosecutorial” tactic by Elliott.

Regardless, the two sides didn’t get much further than agreeing on Kleinfeld’s dismissal. A week later, Arconic said Elliott had “reneged” on two settlements they had agreed upon in principle.

Elliott denies that it reneged on anything. But Arconic thought it had a deal, then at the 11th hour received new demands from Elliott, including control of an operating committee to oversee the board, control of a new CEO search committee, and an agreement to let it sell its shares at any time. Elliott, Arconic claimed, “pursued a ‘win-at-any-cost’ approach and has turned activism into a blood sport.”

Laments one person familiar with Elliott’s strategy: “This is war.”

The fact that Elliot turned the screws on Arconic places the hedge fund at the belligerent end of the activist spectrum, one out of step with other prominent activists who recently have been able to avoid nasty proxy battles. Yet the maneuver was no surprise to those who know Singer and his firm. “It’s utterly consistent with other Elliott negotiations,” says a former hedge fund executive. “They are a pain in the ass to negotiate with. They retrade at the last minute all the time.”

This time ISS also concluded that Elliott had overreached. In its recommendation on May 15 that investors vote for two Elliott nominees, ISS said that demanding an operating committee overseeing the board is highly unusual and uncalled for. The proxy adviser added that “the dissident seems to have pushed its advantage too far in this regard.”

Yet three days before shareholders were due to vote on competing slates of director candidates last month, Elliott and Arconic reached a settlement that gave the hedge fund most of what it wanted: three board seats and a say in Arconic’s new CEO search, among a smattering of other items.

The truce ended what had been the ugliest shareholder activist campaign in the U.S. since Starboard Value’s battle with Darden in 2014, which ended with the hedge fund replacing Darden’s entire board and Starboard Value CEO Jeffrey Smith being named its chair. Since then, Starboard partner Peter Feld says, the fund hasn’t had to go the distance of a drawn-out proxy battle in which shareholders vote over competing slates of board directors to get its way. Even Third Point founder Daniel Loeb, notorious for his “poison-pen letters” to corporate CEOs, hasn’t written such vitriol since his battle with Sotheby’s in 2013. Meanwhile, big-name activists like Carl Icahn and Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman, both of whom have been nursing years of losses, have grown quieter, settling their more recent scores behind closed doors.

“We haven’t had a contentious situation in years,” says Ackman, referring to his 2011 proxy battle with Canadian Pacific, which led to a boardroom shakeup, a new CEO, and a return of 150 percent on his $1 billion investment.William Ackman speaks during the Sohn Investment Conference in New York May 4, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

In 2014, Singer invited Ackman to offer his insight to the senior Elliott team on running an activist hedge fund. At the time, Ackman was engaged in his knock-down, drag-out fight with Allergan, which accused him of insider trading (a lawsuit it later dropped) as he unsuccessfully sought a merger with Valeant, which earned Pershing Square more than $2 billion. The takeaway from Ackman’s speech, says an individual who was there: Hire good lawyers. The next year Singer hired Zabel away from Bharara.

Singer has always been willing to wage battles, legal or otherwise. But institutional investors, who by and large are growing more comfortable with activists, call proxy fights the “nuclear option” and applaud a more cooperative approach. “The best activists are constructive and are willing to work collaboratively” with companies, says Rob Main, the head of Vanguard’s portfolio company engagement, analysis, and voting.

“There are not a lot of real confrontational proxy fights anymore. That’s been a trend for several years,” adds Kenneth Squire, president of 13D Monitor, which tracks filings with the SEC signaling activist intent.

And while a slew of new activists have launched funds in recent years (including three men who used to work for Ackman, and one for Icahn), the confrontational strategy is no longer the hedge fund play du jour, having been replaced by quant strategies. ValueAct’s Ubben, who is known for cooperating with management, recently said he would return more than $1.25 billion to investors, noting he is “skeptical” of the market’s lofty valuation.

But if going for the jugular is the way to maintain a strong track record, Singer is the man to do it. “Nobody else has that street cred,” says Chris Cernich, managing director of Strategic Governance Advisors and previously a top executive at ISS.

While Elliott says it is happy to work cooperatively when possible, this year it has been involved in four raucous shareholder activist campaigns on four continents. In addition to the U.S. battle with Arconic, it has taken on mining giant BHP Billiton in Australia, Samsung Electronics in South Korea, and Akzo Nobel in the Netherlands, which has been resisting a takeover by U.S. rival PPG Industries that Elliott supports. On May 9, Elliott said it had begun legal proceedings to try to oust Akzo chair Antony Burgmans for his refusal to entertain PPG’s offer. 

Paul SingerAccording to calculations from public sources, Elliott has about $8 billion in activist campaigns underway, almost a quarter of the $32.8 billion in assets under management at the multi-strategy fund. The sheer amount of capital Elliott has also makes it formidable. “People know they can afford to fight. They use the size of their capital as a weapon,” says a former hedge fund executive. In May, Elliott raised another $5 billion in committed capital. 

Singer launched Elliott in 1977, which makes it the oldest continuously running hedge fund in the U.S. Its original focus was convertible arbitrage, the hot hedge fund strategy of the day. When some convert issuers could not pay their debts, the fund ended up battling in bankruptcy court. It was in bankruptcy battles over the years — with companies ranging from TWA to Lehman Brothers to Caesars — that Elliott’s reputation for playing hardball was honed. 

“They are very hard-nosed, very aggressive, and sometimes inflexible,” famed bankruptcy lawyer Harvey Miller, who died in 2015, told Fortune magazine regarding Elliott’s role in the bankruptcy battle over Lehman Brothers, which he represented. “Paul Singer is a very tough guy. And his attitudes are pervasive throughout the Elliott firm. They just take a position and say, ‘That’s the way it has to be because we say so.’”

The distressed investing that dominated much of its past success — including the so-called “holdout” strategy with sovereign nations — has waned. As a result, Elliott is using similar take-no-prisoners skills and tactics to rattle corporate cages.

Passively making an investment and hoping your analysis is correct isn’t Elliott’s style, says Jonathan Pollock, a business school dropout who started at Elliott in 1989 as a junior analyst and served as co-CIO before being named co-CEO in 2015. He also oversees global activism at the firm.

 “An activist element runs through almost everything we do. Through a deeper involvement, we help drive a positive outcome,” says Pollock, who like Singer sports a close-shaven beard and glasses but is 18 years younger than his partner and mentor. He recalls his early days at Elliott analyzing closed-end funds, which the firm was trading long and short. “There was an activist element to those trades,” he says.

Pollock leans back, crosses his arms, and thinks before he talks, often furrowing his brow. The hallmark of an activist trade at Elliott is threefold, he explains: “The shares have to be undervalued, the position has to be hedgeable, and there must be a pathway to realizing value through events or on a deeper involvement.” When negotiations get tough, Pollock is the man brought in to close the deal.

The fund’s first stab at shareholder activism came in 1996 in the form of a 13D filing with the SEC announcing a 5 percent equity stake in Patriot Energy, a small oil and gas concern. A penny stock, it was later delisted. In recent years the hedge fund has been known for its activist focus on technology companies, led by 36-year-old Jesse Cohn, who with Pollock is one of seven partners at the firm. Cohn oversees the U.S. activist practice and has been sourcing targets, understanding their weaknesses, and coming up with potential solutions for more than ten years. Many of these companies ended up selling themselves, the biggest being EMC’s $60 billion sale to Dell last year, which was the largest tech merger in history.

In 2013, Elliott took a leap into the world of big-time activists with its first bitter U.S. proxy battle. “Hess was one of our most high-profile situations,” Pollock says, recounting Elliott’s extensive campaign against the oil and gas producer. Hess Corp. chair John Hess fought back hard with what he called “fight letters” that criticized Elliott for, among other things, offering millions of dollars to its selected board nominees.

“It went down to the wire,” recalls Pollock. The two settled just hours before a vote in May 2013, giving Elliott three board seats. Hess, which sold off its non-exploration assets at the behest of Elliott, is one of its activist battles that hasn’t turned out so well for shareholders, however. Since the proxy battle and the 2014 oil price crash, the stock is down almost 30 percent.

jim cramerHess remains Elliott’s second-largest U.S. equity position, and the fund is Hess’s third-largest shareholder, “but to use less diplomatic language, this investment has been disastrous,” Jim Cramer said in December on his Mad Money CNBC show. Elliott argues that Hess has outperformed a Bloomberg index of its peers since January 1, 2013, and has several big exploration projects in the works with low break-even costs. Since the proxy battle ended, however, it has fallen much further than rivals like Continental Resources, which was down 1.27 percent as of May 24.

Winning — or settling — a proxy battle on favorable terms only to watch the stock slide is about the worst fate for an activist. Still, the Hess downturn is unusual for Elliott. Only 16 of the 74 U.S. companies — 22 percent — in which Elliott has held a 5 percent activist stake are now trading below its purchase price or were lower when Elliott sold out, according to 13D Monitor. Elliott is still in the money on its Hess investment, individuals close to the fund say. 

Among Elliott’s current activist plays, Arconic is not the only one that has gotten ugly this year. Its campaign against BHP, where the fund’s stake is worth $1.9 billion, is also looking to be a drawn-out affair. On May 4, during the week Elliott went to Australia to court investors with its proposal, Australia’s Treasurer Scott Morrison warned BHP execs that backing Elliott’s plan to spin off the company’s U.S. oil and gas reserves and forsake its dual Sydney-London exchange listing for a single one in London might subject them to civil, if not criminal, charges. In a press statement Morrison said, “It is unthinkable that any Australian government could allow this original Big Australian to head offshore.”

Moving BHP offshore would deprive Australian governments of billions of dollars in taxes, royalties, and other payments, and was expressly forbidden in 2001 by then-Treasurer Peter Costello when BHP merged with U.K. miner Billiton.

Elliott isn’t deterred. “A distraction,” says an individual familiar with the hedge fund’s campaign. [On May 16 Elliott modified its BHP unification proposal to keep the company incorporated in Australia.] 

Singer's rising profile as a combative global activist has been accompanied by his growing prominence in U.S. politics. He is the chair of the conservative Manhattan Institute, and for many years has been a major financier of Republicans in both state and national contests. Singer backed Mitt Romney for president in 2012; during last year’s Republican presidential primary, Singer supported Florida Senator Marco Rubio, then helped finance the unsuccessful #NeverTrump campaign. Singer has since met with President Trump at the White House, but told investors recently he is still skeptical about the government’s ability to steer the economy and thinks equities are much too pricey. 

The combination of his politics, tactics, and success has turned Singer into a polarizing figure: an uber activist highly respected by his investors and peers but feared and demonized by opponents. That intensified when he became internationally famous as his 15-year battle with Argentina — which refused to pay him more than other investors on sovereign bonds it had restructured — resulted in a new default by the South American country in 2014. The default followed jaw-dropping incidents, like Elliott briefly taking possession of Argentina’s naval flagship in Ghana.

These events made the front page of newspapers around the world, putting Singer’s legal tactics on public display and creating what institutional investors don’t like: headline risk. “Headline risk is something we have to take into account, and if you’re sourcing activist managers, headline risk is something we look at,” says Anne Sheehan, director of corporate governance at the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, which tracks its activists closely. CalSTRS is not an investor in Elliott.

The Argentina fracas also brought out international debt experts to decry Elliott’s holdout strategy, which led to the default after Argentina exhausted its legal remedies. It was another display of activism Singer-style: Holdouts are individual investors who refuse to adhere to an agreement reached by the majority of investors in a sovereign restructuring that forces them to take a haircut on the bonds. Instead, holdouts pursue their claims in court — typically getting much more than everyone else. The strategy has inevitably led to changes in sovereign bond contracts, which now often contain so-called collective-action clauses binding all investors to the agreement of the majority. That, of course, is less interesting for investors like Singer.Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner adjusts her hair before addressing attendees during the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters in New York September 28, 2015. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

During the Argentina battle, each side demonized the other. A Washington, D.C., lobbying group financed largely by Singer accused Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of “making a pact with the devil” for ties with Iran, which conservatives accused of bombing a Buenos Aires Jewish center. Kirchner repeatedly called Singer a “financial terrorist” and a “vulture” — a term that originated on Wall Street as slang for distressed investors — to whip up public sentiment in her favor. The unsavory image followed Singer into an unsuccessful battle with Samsung in South Korea in 2015.

But here’s the thing: Singer’s opponents in both Argentina and South Korea somehow turned out to be less sympathetic than the American billionaire hedge fund manager. It was Argentina, not Elliott, that refused to bargain in recent years, says Greylock Capital Management chair and CEO Hans Humes, a sovereign debt expert who tried to broker a deal between the two parties several times, including the day before the default. Now voted out of power, Kirchner is under indictment on corruption charges, which she has denied.

Last year a new Argentine government sat down with the hedge fund, and Singer finally won his 15-year battle with the country, getting 75 cents on the dollar for the bonds. With accrued interest, Elliott was awarded $2.4 billion, which analysts estimated was 10 to 15 times what the fund paid for the bonds. The Argentina win helped Elliott post a 13 percent gain in 2016, its best in several years.

 In South Korea, Elliott’s opponents have been equally unsympathetic. After Lee Kun-hee, the aging patriarch of the Samsung chaebol, suffered a heart attack and went into a coma in 2014, a looming inheritance tax bill threatened the family’s control of the business empire. Elliott’s Hong Kong team originally invested in Samsung C&T, Samsung’s construction arm, as an event arbitrage play, expecting it to merge with Cheil Industries, another Samsung affiliate, in order for the Lees to maintain control. But when the consideration offered for Samsung C&T was less than book value, the hedge fund realized it had no choice but to “go activist,” as one person familiar with the campaign says.

In the end, despite alleged anti-Semitism at Samsung for such tactics as posting cartoons showing Singer as a vulture with a beak nose, Elliott could not get enough South Korean investor support to stop the transaction. The hedge fund suspected foul play, which was confirmed years later. A political scandal that eventually took down the government also took down Samsung’s Lee Jae-yong, who had been overseeing the group during his father’s illness. The Lee scion is accused of paying $36 million in bribes that eventually influenced South Korea’s National Pension Service — a critical shareholder — around the time of the vote. 

The antagonism Singer arouses matters little to him or his investors. “You burn Elliott, Elliott will come at you,” says one investor in the hedge fund, who admires its pugnaciousness. What investors really like, of course, are the hedge fund’s consistent, healthy returns. Over 40 years, Elliott Associates has amassed a 13.5 percent annualized return, and Elliott International, Singer’s offshore fund launched in 1994, has annualized at 12 percent. Possibly because Singer is known to hedge everything, Elliott’s gains are slightly below those of two other big activists: Loeb’s Third Point Offshore has annualized at 15.8 percent since 1995, while Ackman’s Pershing Square has a 14.8 percent annualized gain since 2004. This year Elliott gained 3.3 percent through April. Its only losses were in 1998 and 2008.

“Elliott is the best hedge fund in the world right now,” says Robert Chapman, who runs Chapman Capital, a small hedge fund that was one of the earliest activists. “Singer is the preeminent activist.”

“Because they’ve been so massively successful, their rapaciousness is now viewed in hindsight as success,” a former hedge fund executive says of Elliott’s appeal. “They are the ultimate rational economic actor. Breaking the social norm of being pleasant in business is not a high cost for them. That lets them be more effective because they are rougher.”Klaus Kleinfeld

The question, then, is whether Singer can continue as activism’s latest bad boy without repercussions. The possibility that Kleinfeld simply cracked under the pressure of Elliott’s hard-nosed tactics concerns investors. Arconic says that in its 18-month-long campaign, Elliott was involved in “aggressive ad hominem personal attacks” that included hiring investigators to interrogate “dozens of [Kleinfeld’s] personal and professional contacts” and “unsubstantiated claims that leaders suffer from psychological disorders.”

Such tactics might just be the activist playbook taken to extremes. “To the extent that matters are couched and can be fairly couched as accountability for past acts, that’s just life for a CEO,” says one lawyer who’s worked on activist battles, though he agrees that the “impunitive” personality comments were “not advisable” to make in an SEC filing. By the same token, Kleinfeld’s letter was bizarre, but attacks on hedge fund activists by corporate CEOs are also not out of the ordinary. “Most activists have a story of someone who went scorched earth on them,” the lawyer adds.

Elliott, of course, isn’t buying Arconic’s argument. The hedge fund publicly called for Kleinfeld’s firing on January 31, when it launched its proxy campaign and detailed the company’s poor performance during his tenure. But Kleinfeld’s letter to Singer was written long before the 322-page presentation with its “ethical concerns” about the then-CEO was filed with the SEC, individuals close to the fund note.

While Kleinfeld left by mutual agreement because of what Arconic termed “inappropriate” comments in his letter to Singer, the company has continued to back the strategy Kleinfeld laid out and worries that an Elliott-chosen CEO and directors would nix it by raising prices on Arconic’s customers, like Boeing and Airbus, and cutting costs to the bone. Three board members proposed by Elliott have already joined Arconic, following the hedge fund’s initial activist stake in Alcoa in 2015, and they actively support the current strategy, the company points out.

Even so, ISS predicted that “the dissident [Elliott] could well win this fight.” Now that it has, there seem to be few limits on Singer’s bare-knuckle tactics — or his ambitions.

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CREDIT SUISSE: 18 stocks that hedge funds think are 'fading stars'

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astronomy telescope stars space

Hedge funds like to make money and can be quick to leave companies that aren't performing well.

Credit Suisse compiled a list of stocks that hedge funds are giving up on, which it calls "fading stars." The following list, released in a note to investors, points out the stocks with the biggest declines in the number of large cap hedge funds holding their shares in Q4 2016.

Only four of the companies has posted a declining share price so far this year. But if a large number of hedge funds are announcing skepticism by selling their shares, their futures may not be as bright. For these companies, this could be an indication of poor future returns.

Hedge funds are certainly not perfect at seeing the future, and their movements should be taken with a grain of salt. For those looking to lighten their portfolio, however, these stocks might represent a good place to start.

Each of the following shares is listed with its sector, year-to-date stock price change, the number of large-cap funds still holding shares, and the number of funds that dropped their ownership in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Exxon Mobil Corp

Industry: Energy

Year to date performance: -11.12%

Number of Funds Invested: 201

Number of Funds that dropped since 3Q: 10

Click here to follow the stock price live...



Tyson Foods

Industry: Food and Beverage

Year to date performance: -3.27%

Number of Funds Invested: 67

Number of Funds that dropped since 3Q: 10

Click here to follow the stock price live...



Monsanto Co

Industry: Materials

Year to date performance: +11.8%

Number of Funds Invested: 63

Number of Funds that dropped since 3Q: 10

Click here to follow the stock price live...



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DALIO: The US and UK might be facing a 'downward spiral'

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The past 24 hours – with Jim Comey's testimony and the UK's snap election – are a cause for alarm to the founder of the world's largest hedge fund.

The US and UK, in effect, are becoming dysfunctional, billionaire Ray Dalio said Friday in a statement posted to his LinkedIn page.

"Over the last 24 hours we’ve seen developments in the US (pertaining to the issues surrounding Jim Comey's testimony) and the UK (concerning no UK party having a ruling majority and the threat of a left populist leader emerging)," said Dalio, who founded $150 billion Bridgewater Associates. "These developments entail the risk that political conflicts will lead to reduced government effectiveness in these two countries at especially challenging times."

He added: "The trend toward conflict leading to greater dysfunctionality, leading to greater conflict, in a self-reinforcing way is increasingly apparent in the US and UK."

"These conditions can reinforce emotional and antagonistic polarity ...and that can create a self-reinforcing downward spiral," he said.

Dalio has been increasingly public in his views on politics over the past several months. Earlier this year, he launched a Twitter feed and has been known to increasingly post his musings, whether about news coverage of his hedge fund that he doesn't like or about support for Jim Comey, a former Bridgewater employee. Earlier this week, Dalio wrote about his concerns over President Trump choosing a small part of America over the world.

Dalio and his $150 billion investment firm have speculated on Trump, and his implications for markets, for months, though those predictions haven't always played out.

Last year, Bridgewater told clients on the day of the election that markets would slump if Trump were elected. (They have since rallied.) More recently, Bridgewater said stocks would drop if Trump were impeached, according to a client note reviewed by Business Insider.

SEE ALSO: DALIO: Trump is putting a small part of America ahead of the entire world

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