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Here's what David Einhorn just presented at one of the biggest hedge fund conferences of the year

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David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital speaks at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York City, U.S. May 4, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File photo

David Einhorn presented his short thesis for Core Labs at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York City on Monday, arguing that Wall Street has been getting the story wrong on the company since 2008.

The company survived a rout that beat its peers in 2008, Einhorn said. That led analysts to "falsely think it's a secular growth story... generally immune to oil price volatility." 

But it's not. Actually, he said, it's riding an international capex cycle. As the world invests less in fossil fuel production, Core is getting walloped by record low oil prices — prices Einhorn doesn't think will bounce back any time soon.

What's more, the stock's not cheap, it actually trades to a premium of its oil field service peers. The company also doesn't seem to have a core business, Einhorn argued. It has staked a claim in every single energy trend over the last few years, and Einhorn joked that reading the company's statements is like "time capsule preserving the history of energy market hype."

The stock fell over 3% on Einhorn's comments.

core labs

 

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A $30 billion hedge fund's market-making arm just made a big purchase

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trading floor

Two Sigma Securities, the market-making affiliate of the $30 billion hedge fund firm, is growing its brokerage business.

The New York-based firm is acquiring the US options-market-making business of Timber Hill, a subsidiary of Interactive Brokers Group.

The deal, which is expected to close in September, will expand TSS's offering, spanning 7,000 US stocks and options on 1,300 underlying securities, Two Sigma said.

Two Sigma Investments is one of the world's largest hedge fund firms, managing $30.4 billion in hedge fund assets as of the start of the year, according to the Hedge Fund Intelligence Billion Dollar Club ranking.

Two Sigma and Chicago-based Citadel are some of the few hedge funds with separately managed market making arms.

Here's the full statement announcing the deal: 

Two Sigma Securities to Acquire the U.S. Options-Market-Making Business of Interactive Brokers

GREENWICH, Conn. and NEW YORK, May 9, 2017 -- Two Sigma Securities, LLC (TSS), the market-making affiliate of Two Sigma Investments, LP has reached an agreement to acquire the U.S. options-market-making business of Timber Hill, a subsidiary of Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ GS: IBKR), the companies announced today. This transaction positions TSS to become a top-tier market-maker across both options and equities. By adding Timber Hill's options business, TSS's market-making offering will span over 7,000 U.S. equity securities and options on 1,300 underlying securities, executing over 300 million shares and one million options contracts per day.

TSS expects to integrate Timber Hill's system into its platform over the coming months, and the transaction is expected to close in September upon receiving required regulatory approvals. 

Through combining Two Sigma's technology and quantitative capabilities and Timber Hill's options expertise, TSS clients will now have access to a unified, best-in-class provider. Additionally, the broader options-trading community will continue to benefit from a strong competitive landscape as Timber Hill maintains and extends its ability to provide liquidity across the U.S. exchanges.

Simon Yates, CEO of TSS, said, "Through this transaction, TSS will integrate Timber Hill's highly complementary platform to form a full-service, large-scale market-maker across equities and options on exchanges and for wholesale retail clients. We look forward to welcoming Timber Hill's employees into our organization. We will also be actively engaging with the exchanges, other market participants and regulators to be part of the dialogue around growing a healthy options industry."

Thomas Peterffy, founder of Timber Hill said, "Interactive Brokers' brokerage business has grown at a very rapid pace. This success is substantially due to our expertise in building first-rate execution technology, which we acquired over our forty years as market makers, leading the way from open outcry floor trading to today's electronic markets. As we are turning our entire attention to our brokerage business, we are gratified that under able management by Two Sigma our software modules will continue to provide liquidity in the U.S. options markets."

TSS plans to open an office in Connecticut to accommodate Timber Hill's current team. This team will operate alongside TSS's existing operations in SoHo.

Sandler O'Neill + Partners, L.P. is acting as financial advisor and Sidley Austin LLP is providing legal advice to Two Sigma. Interactive Brokers was advised by Dechert LLP.

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A new high-profile hedge fund has just made a big hire

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bgc partners trading floor

A high-profile newly launched hedge fund has hired a 15-year Deutsche Bank veteran.

Ben Melkman's Light Sky Macro, a New York-based macro hedge fund, hired Jérôme Saragoussi as director of trading strategy, according to people familiar with the matter.

Saragoussi resigned from Deutsche Bank earlier this week, and his start date at Light Sky Macro has yet to be determined.

Saragoussi started working at Deutsche Bank in 2002. He was most recently director of rates, volatility, and relative value at the German bank, according to a LinkedIn page.

Light Sky Macro launched earlier this year, and it was founded by Melkman, who previously worked at Brevan Howard Asset Management.

The new fund's investor list includes several big-name hedge funders, including Steve Cohen, Third Point's Dan Loeb, Moore Capital's Louis Bacon, Coatue's Philippe Laffont, and Stone Milliner's Jens-Peter Stein, Business Insider previously reported.

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David Einhorn's GM timing is terrible (GM)

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David Einhorn

Between General Motors' management and board of directors and activist hedge fund Greenlight Capital, the battle lines have now been clearly drawn going into GM's shareholder meeting early next month.

Greenlight's David Einhorn, who controls 3.6% of the carmaker's stock, has released an extensive proposal in which he lays out the case of dividing existing GM shares into two classes of stock — dividend and growth — to unlock value and address GM's lackluster market performance during a bull market and US auto sales boom. 

Einhorn points to GM price-to-earnings ratio of 5.4x as the lowest in the S&P 500, rejects GM's capital-allocation structure, and accuses GM's management of misrepresenting his proposal to the ratings agencies. He also wants three seats on GM's board.

GM calls Greenlight's scheme "financial engineering" and insists that it would undermine GM's investment-grade credit rating and create conflicting corporate governance issues. 

Einhorn also took a whack at GM's culture, calling it hidebound and dismissive of his proposal because the company didn't think if it.

Greenlight GM Proposal

Smart but cynical

Greenlight's proposal is actually somewhat cynical, even though Einhorn praises GM for having performance operationally at high levels since emerging from bankruptcy and staging an IPO in 2010. Indeed, the company has been steadily profitable and has raked in cash as SUV and pickup truck sales have surged. And GM has addressed the stalled-share-price issue by setting aside billions to undertake buybacks.

Einhorn seems to want to shove the dividend aspect of GM shareholding off to one side and perhaps watch as it withers, eventually consuming less of GM's available cash. Meanwhile, the new "growth" shares would be the focus of all future buyback action. 

It looks a lot like a capital raid because although Einhorn pays lip service to GM's current and future business, he doesn't pay much attention to how GM will grow its business over the next few years.

There's no backing down on either side, so Greenlight's proposal will live or die in June when shareholders vote. Death is the best bet, but Einhorn has to be hurting because just a few years ago, another activist investor, Harry Wilson, agitated for buybacks and got them.

mary barra

Einhorn's problem is timing. Wilson struck while the striking was good, before 2016 and 2017 when US auto sales reached new highs and GM shares had languished for five years. Back then, Einhorn's quite clever plan would have perhaps earned some more respect. He might even have gotten a board seat.

But there's no way GM is going to screw around with its cash cushion or credit rating ahead of an inevitable market downturn, which could begin in the next 12-18 months. And Einhorn has been so aggressive about the GM board that he's probably offended many shareholders.

A buyback by another name

Fundamentally, if you think GM has upside, then you buy it now while it's dirt cheap and wait for the downturn to shake out all the weakness in the market, enabling GM to enrich its US and global market share and outperform its peers. When sales pick back up, GM's unrealized value will be vindicated and the actual business will have grown.

Some lofty market distractions may also have come down to earth by then, as well. If you aren't sure what I mean, then here's a hint: It begins with "T" and it ends with "A" and it now has a market cap that's as big as GM's and bigger than Ford's. Also, its CEO tweets a lot and wants to retire on Mars.

The bottom line is that Einhorn waited too long to roll out his idea. GM learned something from the Wilson experience and had its defensive game completely prepared. Since he pulled the cover off his scheme, Einhorn has been defending, clarifying, and accusing rather than coming up with a compelling rationale for why the growth shares would capture value created by new products and services.

So all shareholders really have to go on is buybacks by a different name — which they're already getting in additional to the dividend. That's probably not enough to win them over to Einhorn's side, certainly not with a cyclical downturn on the horizon.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Insider.

SEE ALSO: 2 words tell you everything you need to know about what GM thinks of David Einhorn's stock scheme

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Seth Klarman's Baupost made a near $500 million bet (QCOM, QRVO)

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Seth Klarman

Baupost Group invested nearly half a billion dollars in semiconductor company Qorvo in the first quarter, a regulatory filing shows.

The Boston-based hedge fund firm invested about $493 million in the first three months of this year, according to the firm's first-quarter 13-F filing.

The firm also invested $299 million in Qualcomm, the filing says. 

Investors must file 13-F documents within 45 days of each quarter's end, so Baupost's positions may have since changed.

The filing also does not give a full picture of an investor's portfolio, as it only shows its long stock positions, as well as options and convertible bonds.

In other words, what appears to be a long position could be hedged out by other means.

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A UK hedge fund made a $500+ million bet on Wells Fargo (WFC)

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Wells Fargo

UK-based hedge fund firm Lansdowne Partners invested more than half a billion in Wells Fargo in the first quarter.

The fund invested about $544 million in the bank during the first three months of this year, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Lansdowne's 13-F filing.

The fund also increased its position in Bank of America, one of the fund's top holdings, with a value of about $1.1 billion, the analysis shows.

Investors filed 13-F documents within 45 days of each quarter's end, so the fund's positions may have since changed.

The filing also does not give a full picture of an investor's portfolio, as it only shows its long stock positions, as well as options and convertible bonds.

In other words, what appears to be a long position could be hedged out by other means.

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UBS has hired one of Wall Street's most senior women to oversee $600 billion

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Suni Harford

UBS' asset-management arm has hired Suni Harford as its head of investments.

Harford will oversee about $600 billion and about 500 investment staffers from New York, according to a press release.

Harford is replacing Dawn Fitzpatrick, who left the bank earlier this year to join George Soros' family office as chief investment officer.

Harford joins UBS from Citigroup, where she previously worked for 24 years. She most recently was regional head of markets for North America.

Harford's hire is significant because few women hold executive investment roles within asset-management firms. At hedge funds, for instance, it is unusual to find women at the helm.

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A $16 billion activist investor is reportedly handing over the reins to the next generation (KKR)

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Mason Morfit

ValueAct's Jeff Ubben is handing power over to the next generation – protégé Mason Morfit, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Morfit, 41, is currently the fund's president and will become the $16 billion activist hedge fund firm's chief investment officer, according to the Journal.

Earlier this month, Morfit presented on behalf of the firm at the 13D Monitor's Active-Passive Investor Summit, announcing the activist fund's position in KKR.

A spokesperson for ValueAct didn't immediately comment.

You can read the full story at The Wall Street Journal.

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Billionaire Steve Cohen hired 2 investors from the CIA's secretive VC fund for a new Palo Alto office

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Steve Cohen

Billionaire Steve Cohen has opened a Palo Alto office to invest in early-stage companies focused on big data and machine learning, and he has hired two people who invested on behalf of the CIA.

The two men leading the effort are Daniel Gwak and Sri Chandrasekar, who previously worked at In-Q-Tel, a venture capital firm that is mostly funded by the Central Intelligence Agency.

The pair started their new roles on May 1, according to Matthew Granade, Point72's chief market intelligence officer.

The new Silicon Valley office is part of Point72 Ventures, Cohen's venture capital unit, which is legally separate from his $11 billion family office, Point72 Asset Management. Both manage Cohen's billions. Cohen launched Point72 Ventures last year, hiring Pete Casella of JPMorgan Chase Strategic Investments to help lead the effort.

Point72 Ventures expects to eventually expand its new Palo Alto office and add more staffers, Granade told Business Insider.

Daniel Gwak"Machine learning and AI are playing an ever increasing role in solving problems," Granade said.

At In-Q-Tel, the CIA venture capital firm, Gwak and Chandrasekar "had a great vantage point in how these companies were getting started, what was working and not working," he added.

Gwak and Chandrasekar didn't respond to requests for comment.

At In-Q-Tel, Gwak focused on enterprise analytics and infrastructure companies, and Chandrasekar led an artificial intelligence lab, according to bios provided by Point72. 

Their new group is tech-focused, and could involve a range of companies, such as those looking at natural language processing, automating trucks or cars, or synthesizing news.

Granade declined to put a figure at how much money the venture arm plans to invest, but said he expected the group to invest in 10 to 20 companies a year.

"Steve [Cohen] has a fairly good sized balance sheet," Granade said. "Because we're operating through Steve, we can be very opportunistic when we're seeing things."

The Intercept reported last year that In-Q-Tel has been specializing in companies that mine data on Twitter and other social networks. And the Wall Street Journal reported that some of In-Q-Tel's board members have ties to some of the companies the fund has invested in. 

Sri Chandrasekar

The Securities and Exchange Commission in 2013 banned Cohen's $16 billion predecessor firm, SAC Capital, from managing outside money after it pleaded guilty to securities fraud.

Cohen subsequently launched Point72 as a family office to run his billions of wealth. A Cohen-led organization can accept outside investors' money again starting next year.

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Hedge funds that bet on Silicon Valley are crushing it

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silicon valley

A string of technology-focused hedge funds are having a strong start to the year.

Among them:

  • Light Street Capital Management's $930 million Halogen fund is up 28.5% this year through the end of April, according to an investor document reviewed by Business Insider.  That's a strong start compared to last year, when the fund fell -1.5%. The head of the fund, Glen Kacher, started his career at Tiger Management, Julian Robertson's famous fund.
  • Whale Rock, a Boston-based fund run by Alexander Sacerdote, is up 13% net of fees in the first quarter, according to investor documents reviewed by Business Insider. The firm managed about $1.6 billion at the end of the first quarter, according to the documents.
  • Honeycomb Asset Management, started by a Steve Cohen protégé David Fiszel and which manages about $330 million, returned 9.3% net over the same period.
  • Pier 88 Investments' Lake Geneva fund was up 9% net of fees this year through the end of April, according to a performance document. The firm manages about $300 million.

The performance comes as technology has become the most crowded trade, according to a recent fund survey out of Bank of America Merill Lynch. In a client note, UBS also flagged that tech had driven performance for many hedge funds, including positions in Tencent, Alphabet, Alibaba and Facebook.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, noted that among north American stocks, 29% of net exposure for hedge funds tracked by the bank was in information tech stocks as of the end of April, according to a recent client research.

Some who track the hedge fund industry are wary about the performance. "This outperformance has coincided with an increase in [funds'] 18 month rolling Beta to the MSCI China Index, whose top holdings have included many Chinese internet stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and Netease," PivotalPath's Mark Doherty said in a statement.

"We believe that the risk in these specific names has increased as more and more hedge funds have added these names to their long portfolios as hedge funds who aren’t TMT-focused have put capital to work in stocks that are in the MSCI China Index," he added.

The consultant is not advising clients to shift their hedge fund allocations, but rather to "anticipate that a sell off in stocks in the MSCI China Index may impact various hedge fund strategies in their portfolio." 

To be sure, not all tech funds have outperformed. SoMa Equity Partners, a startup founded by Gil Simon, formerly chief investment officer of Apex Capital, was roughly flat for the first quarter. 

"Investors would have done well to own mega‐caps AAPL, Amazon (AMZN), and Facebook (FB) in the quarter, which alone contributed to 28% of the S&P 500's 6% return," Simon wrote to letters in an April letter reviewed by Business Insider. "Unfortunately, SoMa did not participate in the Q1 fireworks."

"Our strategy of owning non‐consensus stocks limits our exposure to the mega‐cap names, and our single largest holding, YELP, experienced a significant pullback around its initial 2017 outlook, which we believe will be short‐lived," Simon added. 

The firm's flat first quarter follows a 16.6% gain last year from the fund's start in May 2016, separate documents show. The fund has since picked up a bit – the fund's founders' class was up 2% in April.

Soma managed $635 million firmwide at the start of May, according to the documents.

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A struggling hedge fund has reportedly suffered about $1 billion in outflows

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City of London

Brevan Howard Asset Management, once a titan among hedge funds, has suffered about $1 billion in outflows, according to a Bloomberg News calculation based on recent investment letters from the firm.

The firm's assets now sit at about $8.7 billion, down from $10 billion, Bloomberg reported. The fund is run by billionaire Alan Howard.

That's a stark fall for the firm, which as recently as 2013 managed $40 billion.

Investors have been pulling money from the fund for years as the fund posted lackluster returns.

Last year, investors were bracing for billions more in redemptions and the firm was bracing for a "worst-case scenario" in contingency planning should assets drop further, Business Insider reported.

Brevan was down by 3.1% in the first four months of 2017 after returning 3% last year, Bloomberg reported.

The outflows come as Brevan spinouts, such as Rokos Capital Management, plan to double in size. Others, like Ben Melkman's Light Sky Macro, have been expanding, too. The New York-based Light Sky Macro now manages a little over $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the business.

An external representative for Brevan Howard declined to comment.

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Meet the 9 hedge fund managers who made the most money in 2016

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ray dalio2016 was a tough year for hedge funds. 

The industry as a whole only delivered a 5.4% return for clients, well below the S&P 500's return of 11.9%, according to data from eVestment.

Poor performance and high fees drove money out of the money managers' funds by about $70 billion last year, the biggest drop since 2009, according to data tracker HFR.

This backdrop, however, had little impact on the bottom line of many of the top hedge fund managers of the world.

According to Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine's recently released list of the top-earning hedge fund managers, the top 25 hedge fund heads earned $11 billion in total last year. 

Among the billionaires who posted subpar returns are Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, who pocketed $600 million despite making investors in his main flagship funds just over 5%, according to the New York Times. And Dan Loeb, founder of Third Point, earned $260 million after his fund posted gains of just 6%.

To be sure, some fund managers performed well, such as Renaissance Technologies. The firm's Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund and Renaissance Institutional Diversified Alpha Fund gained 21.5% and 11%, per the Times.

While the amount of total money that managers made last year is down from others, according to the Times, it's still double than what it was in 2000, the year that Institutional Investor first rolled out the annual list. 

Following are the top nine earnings from the list:

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9. David Shaw, founder of DE Shaw & Co - $415 million



8. Michael Hintze, founder of CQS LLP - $450 million



7. Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Management - $590 million



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

Here are the biggest bets made by top hedge funds in the first quarter

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Stock market

Here they are: The darlings of hedge fund stock pickers. 

S&P Global Intelligence has released its Hedge Fund Tracker, which takes a look at the holdings of the ten largest pure play hedge funds.

Such firms focus on stock picking, have less than 100 positions, and are more activist in their nature than other hedge funds.

Viking Global Investors, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm, came in at number one with $23.8 billion in assets, according to the report.

In total, the 10 firms have positions in 389 stocks.

Following are the five biggest buys made by the top hedge funds last quarter. 

SEE ALSO: Meet the 9 hedge fund managers who made the most money in 2016

5. Formula One Group - $765 million

Soroban Capital, a New York-based fund founded in 2010, and Viking Global Investors both own 12 million shares apiece, with each holding a 6.9% stake. They are the top two shareholders in the company. 

Source: Bloomberg



4. Constellation Brands - $859 million

Soroban has a 2.7% stake in Constellation Brands with 4.6 million shares. Lone Pine Capital, another Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm, has a 4.2% stake with 7.2 million shares. 

Source: Bloomberg



3. Marriott - $1.4 billion

Soroban Capital also has a big position in Marriott. The firm has a 5.46% stake with 20.6 million shares. 

Source: Bloomberg



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

Brazilian markets are getting slammed, and Wall Street firms are hurting (EWZ)

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Protest Brazil Michel Temer

Brazil's markets are getting slammed as a political scandal unfolds involving alleged bribery and the country's president.

And some of the biggest firms in finance are potentially getting hurt.

The biggest exchange-traded fund focused on Brazil is the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ), with more than $5.8 billion in assets.

As of mid-day Thursday, the ETF has fallen more than 16%, according to Markets Insider data.

As of March 31, some of that ETF's biggest holders included:

  • Bridgewater Associates
  • Morgan Stanley
  • UBS
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Credit Suisse
  • BNP Paribas
  • Bank of America
  • State of Tennessee Treasury Department

That's according to regulatory filings analyzed by Bloomberg.

To be sure, these positions may have since changed, and the Wall Street banks are likely holding the ETF as market-makers, which is to say they are providing liquidity for those trading in and out of the fund. 

Still, it's a tough day for those trading Brazilian assets. 

With assistance from Joe Ciolli.

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'All honeymoons end': Hedge funds are moving on from the Trump trade

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The Breakup couple fighting

LAS VEGAS, May 18 (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers said they are looking beyond the United States for investment ideas as the so-called Trump bump stock market rally shows signs it may be fizzling.

After months of gains fueled by the Trump administration's promises of relaxed regulations, tax reform and an infrastructure spending package, U.S. markets this week looked less appealing as the S&P 500 logged its biggest one-day drop since September and Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, spiked.

"Non-U.S. investing is already starting to win. Time to ride that train," Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, told managers and investors in Las Vegas on Wednesday at the SkyBridge Capital SALT conference, one of the hedge fund industry's largest.

Prominent managers at SALT singled out Europe as a good place to invest. Credit specialists Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital and Bruce Richards of Marathon Asset Management noted the relatively calm political climate there compared to the United States, and touted opportunities around troubled loans and idiosyncratic debt positions.

Non-performing loans, for example, are yielding roughly 6 percent in the United States while yields are in the double digits in Spain even as they have better downside protection, Jack Ross, co-founder of Waterfall Asset Management said.

"Europe is in the third inning while the United States is in the seventh or ninth inning depending on how successful President Trump is," said Reade Griffith, chief investment officer of Polygon's European Event-Driven fund.

With the euro trading at attractive levels compared with the dollar, promising earnings growth and companies strengthening their balance sheets, Griffith said that European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi deserves much credit for laying the groundwork for economic recovery.

"He's a financial superhero and there should be a statue of him," said Griffith.

Honeymoon is over 

Hedge fund managers and former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday expressed surprise at how blasé markets have been in the face of rising tensions between the United States and North Korea and mounting concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump many not deliver on promises of stronger growth.

Even so, markets were rattled this week as controversies surrounding the White House mounted, including reports that Trump had tried to intervene in an investigation into alleged Russian interference in the U.S. election and that his aides had undisclosed contacts with Russian officials.

Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, speaks at the SALT conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. May 17, 2017.  REUTERS/Richard Brian"That noise is not good for the markets and that's what is feeding the selling," Ray Nolte, chief investment officer at SkyBridge Capital, which invests in hedge funds, said about troubles in the White House this week.

He forecast that markets could drop between 5 percent and 10 percent.

"When it hits it will hit with record speed because we had such a huge bump up and U.S. stocks are priced to perfection."

Before this week's selloff U.S. stocks had climbed roughly 10 percent since Trump's election victory in November.

"All honeymoons end and we are now learning the challenges of living with our new partner," said Chris Henetemann, who runs structured credit specialist hedge fund 400 Capital Management.

Only a few months ago, Nolte's SkyBridge portfolio of investment managers focused largely on the United States, he said. Now they have shifted money to investments in Europe and he expects to continue adding assets there later this year.

That strategy could include allocating more money to managers such as Daniel Loeb's hedge fund Third Point after he recently told his clients that he is seeing opportunities in Europe.

"Dan might like Europe more and we might like Europe more," Nolte said.

But Europe is the not the only place where investors are turning.

"The valuations outside the U.S., especially in the emerging markets, might be more attractive," Adam Blitz, chief investment officer at Evanston Capital said.

The MSCI emerging markets stock index is trading up 14.8 percent year to date with a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 percent versus a 5.7 percent gain for the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 index, which sports a 12-month forward price-to-equity ratio of 17.7 percent.

Still, emerging markets were also showing signs of unease on Thursday amid a broad flight to safety as well as Brazil's own political turmoil.

Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index was down 9 percent on the day, paring earlier losses that had marked its biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis. MSCI's emerging market index fell for a second straight day.

Looking ahead to the next winning investment, Cartica Management chief CEO Teresa Barger, who currently likes investments in India, said it was bound to be small and obscure; "it may be Nigeria."

(Additional reporting by Daniel Bases; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

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Hedge fund manager Lee Cooperman has settled with the government

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FILE PHOTO: Leon G. Cooperman, CEO of Omega Advisors, Inc., speaks on a panel at the annual Skybridge Alternatives Conference (SALT) in Las Vegas May 7, 2015.  REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo

Lee Cooperman has settled insider trading charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission for $4.9 million, the Financial Times is reporting.

Last year, Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, was charged with insider trading. He had said that he intended to fight the charges.

Under the settlement, Cooperman is neither admitting nor denying wrongdoing, and will not be banned from managing money, the FT reported.

In an email to Business Insider, Cooperman declined to comment on the settlement.

As part of the settlement, Omega must retain an on-site independent compliance consultant until at 2022, the SEC said in a statement.

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Traders can make a killing chasing the 'smart money'

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einstein chalkboard learning smart

To profit from the stock market, be sure to follow the "smart money." Just figure out where hedge funds are investing, and then do the same.

It's a strategy that would have worked this year if executed properly, as the stocks most widely held by hedge funds have outperformed the broader market.

Luckily for any aspiring smart-money tracker, Goldman Sachs maintains an index of stocks in which fundamentally-driven hedge funds hold large positions — in other words, the companies that matter most to speculative institutional investors.

The Goldman Hedge Fund VIP basket has climbed by about 10% this year, beating the S&P 500 by almost 4 percentage points. Boasting the likes of Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple among the most popular and heavily weighted holdings, the index has been a big beneficiary of a stock market that has been rewarding investors for doubling down on proven winners.

Goldman VIP basket

The willingness of hedge funds to continue buying the same strong-performing stocks has pushed the firms' long exposure to its highest since 2013, according to Goldman. Further, gross leverage — or the total asset value held either long or short by a fund — has surged to its highest since the financial crisis.

Upon first glance, this type of momentum-based investing may seem like a recipe for disaster. After all, crowded positions typically unwind in swift and unforgiving fashion, suggesting considerable downside risk in the event of an unexpected market shock. That's what happened in early 2016, when high-flying mega-cap tech stocks led to a temporary sell-off.

Not so fast, says Goldman, which points out that high leverage alone has not historically challenged momentum. Rather, there were other external conditions that led to the 2016 weakness that are absent today, most notably earnings.

Mired in a five-quarter profit contraction back then, corporations in the S&P 500 are now coming off their best earnings growth since 2011. Goldman also notes that crowding in hedge funds is less pronounced now than it was a year ago.

Goldman hedge fund crowding

SEE ALSO: Traders just got a sign the stock market rally has a long way to go

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GOLDMAN SACHS: These are the 14 VIP stocks that matter most to hedge funds

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Oscars red carpet

It's a good time to be a hedge fund.

The stocks most widely held by large speculative financial institutions are beating the S&P 500 by almost 4 percentage points this year, on pace to exceed last year's outperformance, which also saw the group return more than the benchmark.

The equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs maintains a list of the stocks that matter most to hedge funds. Analyzing 821 funds that hold a total of $1.9 trillion in gross equity positions, they identify the stocks that appear the most frequently among top 10 holdings.

Those companies are then put into an index called the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP basket, which is rebalanced on a periodic basis, depending on the latest hedge fund 13-F filings.

Here's a list of the 14 stocks in the index that show up most frequently in the top 10 of hedge fund portfolios, as of March 31:

 

14. Citigroup

Ticker: C

Subsector: Diversified banks

Total return year-to-date: 2%

No. of funds with stock as top 10 holding: 30

Source: Goldman Sachs

Get real-time Citigroup charts here>>



13. Reynolds American

Ticker: RAI

Subsector: Tobacco

Total return year-to-date: 18%

No. of funds with stock as top 10 holding: 31

Source: Goldman Sachs

Get real-time RAI charts here>>



12. Alibaba Group

Ticker: BABA

Subsector: Internet software & services

Total return year-to-date: 38%

No. of funds with stock as top 10 holding: 33

Source: Goldman Sachs

Get real-time BABA charts here>>



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

2,000 Wall Streeters just had a meeting in Las Vegas, and they all kept making the same awkward noise

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bellagio hotel las vegas dark

One distinct noise dominated the biggest Wall Street conference of 2017. It wasn't the "Wolf of Wall Street" types screaming at the craps table, or the plink-plink-plink of slot machines as dad-bros clinked scotch-filled glasses over market talk.

The noise was nervous laughter, and for what is supposed to be the biggest Wall Street party of the year, it was incredibly weird.

We're talking specifically about the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference, or SALT, an annual hedge fund meeting (and party) for the 1%.

If you've never been to a dayslong Wall Street conference in Las Vegas, let me explain to you what it's like: You sit in dark rooms while the sun is shining. You wear dark suits inside while all the happy civilians are wearing bathing suits and jumping in pools outside. While you are listening to lecture after lecture about credit conditions and opportunities in the stock market, the rest of the world is making slot machines ring and drinking off their hangovers.

This experience is best when the mood is light — when the market is strong and tailwinds are pushing you forward. In years like that, there's a seamless transition from a world leader's one-on-one interview to a bunch of hedge fund dad-bros crushing Champagne by the pool.

This year at SALT, though, the mood was not light.

It's true the US market is near record highs, but there's a feeling across the world that the wind is turning. The millionaires and billionaires at SALT have been feeling it for weeks. And that's why the halls and auditoriums of the Bellagio were filled with one distinct sound.

Nervous laughter.

Even the Masters of the Universe, the men at the highest heights of this country, are starting to worry about what it's like to fall. President Donald Trump, a man they thought they could level with, is starting to show that his critics were right to worry about his erratic behavior and inexperience. No one knows when a market slide will happen, or if it will happen at all.

They've been wrong before, and they hope they're wrong now.

A master of none

No one could get the nervous laughter going at SALT better than the chairman of the conference, Anthony Scaramucci. He has long been known on Wall Street as a man who sees opportunity and takes it, even if it means biting off more than he can chew.

His opening remarks on Wednesday were about something like that. Last May, right before the conference, Scaramucci pledged his loyalty to Trump and joined his campaign. Unfortunately for him, the position he thought he would receive in the White House has not materialized.

Instead of hiding from this, he dove into it and explained his current position as he addressed a dark, worried crowd.

"If [Trump] wants me to serve, I'm ready to serve. If he doesn't want me to serve, that's fine," Scaramucci said. "I have no bitterness about it. It's politics."

He also acknowledged that not a lot of the people in the room were Trump fans. This time last year, Scaramucci was in Trump conversion mode — this year he was in Trump conciliation mode.

anthony scaramucci

As part of his attempt to soften the crowd, Scaramucci told a story of what he found on the campaign trail with Trump.

At a stop in Albuquerque, New Mexico, the millionaire met hundredaires at best — people holding down multiple jobs just to survive. He shook their hands and heard their stories. He related it to his working-class upbringing as an Italian kid on Long Island. Alongside the tragedy of America's wealth gap, he found a feeling of connection to ordinary people.

"I spent 28 years of my life trying to join the global elite," he said, with a hint of regret. "But it took a billionaire who lives on Fifth Avenue in a tower next to Tiffany's jewelry store to show me what I missed."

Nervous laughter.

The chorus

Just after Scaramucci spoke, Ben Bernanke, a former the chair of the Federal Reserve who was one of the most powerful men in the world, shared his thoughts. He said Trump's lack of leadership was a "reasonable concern."

"I did not anticipate how these various issues, Russia and so on, would create uncertainty," he said.

Bernanke also said that what Wall Street called the "Trump trade" was "overdone."

After Trump was elected, the market rallied sky-high — like a rocket off to Mars to meet Jesus. The standard explanation for this glorious move was that Wall Street expected tax cuts for corporations and the rich. It expected infrastructure spending and a Congress that would ignore deficit reduction. It expected the rollback of regulations on our banking system, on our energy companies, of Obama-era measures meant to protect land, sea, and sky.

Bernanke gently explained, as one would tell a child there is no tooth fairy, that there is no Trump trade. The tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and deregulation are not coming. Bernanke told Wall Street: You will not have what you were dreaming of. Some people are not who they say they are.

This is where we are now. The financiers in the room have realized that Trump can and will do nothing for anyone other than himself, the long-hoped-for economic policies vanishing in the face of scandal — of Russian intrigue, of accusations of corruption and mendacity.

Trump has become another major stressor for an industry that has been worried since 2015 about clients demanding lower fees and higher returns. At SALT, the mood was darker and attendance lower than in years past. Wall Street, just like the market, is starting to crack ever so slightly in the face of uncertainty.

That slow realization is what the nervous laughter is all about.

Pointing out that things can get worse still, Erik Schatzker, who moderated Bernanke's talk, asked him, "What if loyalty becomes the No. 1 requirement for the Fed chairman?"

Nervous laughter.

Bernanke responded gravely: If the Fed chair has no credibility, people won't believe in the markets.

What, then, is there to believe in? This is all coming at a time when the industry has more than enough to worry about. Returns have for years been weak, fees are going lower, and hedge funds are blowing up. Uncertainty in Washington is the last thing anyone needs.

Ben Bernanke

Louder and louder

The billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, the man known as Wall Street's "bond god," spoke at the conference from a studio in Los Angeles, appearing as a hologram during lunchtime. A year before, he predicted Trump would win the election, but he didn't seem thrilled about it then or now.

"Trump says inconsistent things from time to time, you may have noticed," he said.

Nervous laughter.

On the other side of the political spectrum, Sam Zell, the billionaire real-estate investor from Chicago, defended Trump at the conference.

"All of this is excessive," he said of Trump's Russia scandals. "Not much will come of this."

There was no laughter there, but Zell — notorious for decrying the danger of economic redistribution and his hatred of Barack Obama and liberals at large — got a laugh later. While extolling the virtues of the deregulation of the coal industry he offered another story from China, one that seemed to illustrate the opposite point of the one he was trying to make.

The air quality in Beijing is so bad as a result of coal-burning power plants, Zell said excitedly, that after a trip there, "my pilot told me we had to take the plane back to Chicago and clean it before we got to New York City or we'd lose the paint job."

Nervous laughter— with an audible groan.

The groan was so loud, in fact, that Zell's moderator, Fox News' Liz Claman, took a jab.

"God forbid you lose the paint job," she said jokingly.

'Wake up'

The standout keynote speech of the conference was former Vice President Joe Biden's address on Thursday evening. For quite a bit of his talk, his head was in his hands.

That's because Biden, as you probably know, is not very good at hiding his emotions. This time, he was showing clear disappointment.

"We need to think big!" Biden exclaimed to the silent crowd of mesmerized financiers.

The America he sees now, he said, is an America that thinks little of itself, that pretends it can take on only small challenges rather than energetically tackle big ones. It is a tired and small America, not an exhilarated America, or, rather, the America that Biden knows and would prefer.

It is an America where people behave selfishly and cling to what they know, rather than one where people work with one another to forge another rich and glorious American century.

Today that makes us weak, but we are weak today only because we are afraid.

Biden does not believe America is a country of sudden losers; he believes in facts. Yes, the future brings violent change along with it. But we are a country of solutions — of the "most nimble" venture capitalists and more research universities than any other country in the world. We are blessed with arable land and a healthy population. According to a man who knows we desperately need to hear it, we can do anything we put our minds to.

And so we should.

In that dark room of nervous suits, Biden explained the truth. If America invests in America, America will be nothing but great. And then he said something that makes moneymen uncomfortable: There is no proof that people keeping their tax money for themselves and their children will enrich the economy. But education will. Investing in public goods will. Focusing on the future will.

"Raise your hand if you think 12 years of education is enough in this economy," he said to the crowd.

Nervous silence.

So we need $9 billion, Biden said. To Wall Street, that's nothing. Wall Street knows that for America, it's nothing. But that $9 billion would pay for free community college for people who want it, Biden said. That, in turn, would add two-tenths of a percent to gross domestic product.

"Wake up," he demanded.

It was an order, but it's hard to comply with. Trump has made Wall Street wonder whether the party in the market is over, and quietly in Las Vegas, Wall Streeters wondered if this would be the last SALT they would attend. You would think that given the Wall Street image of testosterone-charged traders and savvy bankers the business would face this challenge with energy. But that isn't the case. Wall Street has lost its nerve.

And so what we have here now is lethargy — and nervous laughter.

SEE ALSO: I went to the biggest Wall Street party of the year and everyone was miserable

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Algos could trigger the next stock market crash

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Quant-focused hedge funds – they specialize in algorithmic rather than human trading – gained $4.6 billion of net new assets in the first quarter, and now hold $932 billion, or about 30% to the $3.1 trillion in total hedge-fund assets. At the same time, investors yanked $5.5 billion out of non-quant hedge funds. This comes on top of last year when investors had yanked $83 billion out of non-quant hedge funds and had poured $13 billion into quant funds.

Trading by quant funds has soared to 27.1% of all stock market trading, up from 13.6% in 2013, according to a series of reports by the Wall Street Journal. These trades can last from minutes to months. Quant funds are different from algo-driven high-frequency trading (HFT) where trades last only milliseconds. And they’re different from ETFs which also use algorithms.

This chart shows the soaring share of trading by quant funds (red line), compared to the largest other types of investors – traditional asset managers, non-quant hedge funds, and bank proprietary trading. Another 25% to 27% of the trading is done by other investor types, including individual investors, not shown in this chart:

US quant funds share_2017 q1

In addition, there are the fast growing “smart-beta” ETFs and mutual funds for mom-and-pop investors. They too are a form of quant funds focused on algorithmic trading. Assets in these funds in the US reached $760 billion so far in 2017, up from $108 billion in 2008, and up from $208 billion in 2011.

Algorithmic trading has been around for a long time – The WSJ refers to its 1974 article that “featured quant pioneer Ed Thorp” – but it’s just taking an ever larger share of the trading activity.

For example, Steven Cohen’s $12-billion hedge fund, Point 72 Asset Management, is moving about half of its portfolio managers to a “man plus machine” approach. The Wall Street Journal:

Teams that use old-school research methods are working alongside data scientists. Financial analysts are taking evening classes to learn data-science basics. Point72 is plowing tens of millions of dollars into a group that analyzes reams of data, including credit- card receipts and foot traffic captured by apps on smartphones. The results are passed on to traders at the Stamford, Conn., investment firm.

Point72 lost money in most of its traditional trading strategies last year, say people familiar with the results. The firm’s quant investors made about $500 million.

Quant funds follow all kinds of esoteric data, trying to gain some kind of advantage:

Hedge funds with quant-focused strategies have been poring over private Chinese and Russian consumer surveys, illicit pharmaceutical sales on the dark web—a network of websites used by hackers and others to anonymously share information—and hotel bookings by U.S. travelers, according to Quandl Inc., a platform for such data.

Today’s algorithms can make continuous predictions based on analysis of past and present data while hundreds of real-time inputs bombard the computers with various signals.

Some investment firms are pushing into machine learning, which allows computers to analyze data and come up with their own predictive algorithms. Those machines no longer rely on humans to write the formulas.

Not that is leads to huge returns. Quant funds earned about 5.1% per year on average over the past five years. While this beats average hedge fund returns of 4.3%, it lags far behind the 15% average annual total return (including dividends) of the S&P 500 over the same period.

But what happens to the markets when a few machines rather than millions of humans make more and more trading decisions? When too many of them use the same inputs and formulas by the same PhDs from the same schools?

“Will the market fall in lockstep, pulling every asset lower?” the Journal asks. These funds could give “a false sense of security about the market’s stability.” For example:

In 2007, what became known as the “quant meltdown” was caused largely by the similarity of strategies among quants, who simultaneously rushed to sell, causing losses at other firms and more selling.

Mathematician William Byers, who wrote the 2010 book “How Mathematicians Think,” warns that rendering the world in numbers can give investors a deceptive belief that predictions churned out of computers are more reliable than they truly are. The more investors flock to complicated algorithmic models, the more likely it is some algorithms will be similar to one another, possibly fueling larger market disruptions, some analysts say.

It seems algos are programmed with a bias to buy. Individual stocks have risen to ludicrous levels that leave rational humans scratching their heads. But since everything always goes up, and even small dips are big buying opportunities for these algos, machine learning teaches algos precisely that, and it becomes a self-propagating machine, until something trips a limit somewhere.

And suddenly things happen that weren’t part of the scenario. To deal with it, the machines, perhaps in lockstep, revert to a part of the code that says “sell.” Plunging markets trigger more sell signals, and so on. And in this paroxysm of selling by the machines, there might not be enough human traders left – they’ve been sent to pasture years ago – to jump in and buy. Sure, it cannot happen, we’re told. Until it does happen.

And are they all jumping into the same handful of stocks? “The new 1%” of these stocks gained $260 billion since March 1, while the remaining 99% lost $260 billion. Read…  “The Great Narrowing” of the S&P 500

SEE ALSO: Big stock market shocks aren't scaring investors anymore

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